为不确定环境下的决策选择最优模型,提升可靠性与效率
Optimal Model Selection for Conformalized Robust Optimization
- 基于置信预测构建模型选择框架,统一控制鲁棒性与决策风险
- 提出E-CROMS算法,在渐近意义下实现1-α鲁棒性与决策最优
- 支持个性化建模,适配实际应用中需考虑协变量的场景
在不确定性决策中,上下文鲁棒优化(CRO)通过最小化预测集上的最坏情况损失来保障可靠性。尽管近期研究利用置信预测构造机器学习模型的预测集,但下游决策对模型选择高度敏感。本文提出新的CRO模型选择框架,将鲁棒性控制与决策风险最小化相统一。首先提出包含模型选择的置信鲁棒优化(CROMS),选择使平均决策风险近似最小的模型。针对目标鲁棒性水平1-α,设计计算高效的E-CROMS算法,实现渐近鲁棒性控制与决策最优。为纠正有限样本偏差,进一步提出两个算法:F-CROMS保证1-α鲁棒性但需搜索标签空间;J-CROMS计算成本更低,达到1-2α鲁棒性。此外,将CROMS扩展至个体化设置,基于测试数据协变量最小化条件决策风险,实现协变量感知的模型选择。数值实验表明,在多种合成与真实世界应用中,该方法显著提升决策效率,优于基线方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In decision-making under uncertainty, Contextual Robust Optimization (CRO) provides reliability by minimizing the worst-case decision loss over a prediction set. While recent advances use conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for machine learning models, the downstream decisions critically depend on model selection. This paper introduces novel model selection frameworks for CRO that unify robustness control with decision risk minimization. We first propose Conformalized Robust Optimization with Model Selection (CROMS), a framework that selects the model to approximately minimize the averaged decision risk in CRO solutions. Given the target robustness level 1-α, we present a computationally efficient algorithm called E-CROMS, which achieves asymptotic robustness control and decision optimality. To correct the control bias in finite samples, we further develop two algorithms: F-CROMS, which ensures a 1-αrobustness but requires searching the label space; and J-CROMS, which offers lower computational cost while achieving a 1-2αrobustness. Furthermore, we extend the CROMS framework to the individualized setting, where model selection is performed by minimizing the conditional decision risk given the covariates of the test data. This framework advances conformal prediction methodology by enabling covariate-aware model selection. Numerical results demonstrate significant improvements in decision efficiency across diverse synthetic and real-world applications, outperforming baseline approaches.
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