将决策系统从预测转向干预,更真实地评估其社会影响。
Bridging Prediction and Intervention Problems in Social Systems
- 把预测当作决策支持,而非最终决策依据。
- 揭示孤立预测任务的局限性,强调系统性影响。
- 适合研究算法公平性与政策效果的学者参考。
许多自动化决策系统(ADS)原本旨在解决预测问题——即从样本中学习模式并应用于同质群体个体。但在实际部署中,这些系统会通过改变决策者行为方式,实质上实施整体性政策干预。与此同时,系统本身也受制于过往与当前利益相关方互动,以及现有组织和社会基础设施的约束。本文主张,必须从以预测为中心的范式转向以干预为导向的范式,重新定义ADS的设计、实施与评估框架。我们提出应将预测视为决策支持,而非最终决策或结果。这一视角整合了现代统计方法及其他工具,统一了对系统全生命周期的研究,并指明实现该范式转变所需的关键研究方向。借助这些工具,我们揭示了仅关注单一预测任务的局限,为构建更注重干预效果的ADS体系奠定基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Many automated decision systems (ADS) are designed to solve prediction problems -- where the goal is to learn patterns from a sample of the population and apply them to individuals from the same population. In reality, these prediction systems operationalize holistic policy interventions in deployment. Once deployed, ADS can shape impacted population outcomes through an effective policy change in how decision-makers operate, while also being defined by past and present interactions between stakeholders and the limitations of existing organizational, as well as societal, infrastructure and context. In this work, we consider the ways in which we must shift from a prediction-focused paradigm to an intervention-oriented paradigm when considering the impact of ADS within social systems. We argue this requires a new default problem setup for ADS beyond prediction, to instead consider predictions as decision support, final decisions, and outcomes. We highlight how this perspective unifies modern statistical frameworks and other tools to study the design, implementation, and evaluation of ADS systems, and point to the research directions necessary to operationalize this paradigm shift. Using these tools, we characterize the limitations of focusing on isolated prediction tasks, and lay the foundation for a more intervention-oriented approach to developing and deploying ADS.
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