arXiv:2507.05220cs.LGstat.ML2025-07ICML被引 2

用模型预测提升稀疏数据的分布量度估计,支持尾部风险等关键指标。

QuEst: Enhancing Estimates of Quantile-Based Distributional Measures Using Model Predictions

  • 融合少量真实数据与大量模型输出,构建分布量度的联合估计框架
  • 可精确估计尾部风险(CVaR)和分位数等指标,并给出置信区间
  • 适用于经济建模、民意调查等需高可靠性分布评估的场景

随着机器学习模型能力增强,其预测可补充各类重要领域中稀缺或昂贵的数据。为此,已有算法将少量高保真观测数据与大量模型生成数据结合,以估计目标量。然而现有混合推断工具仅限于均值或单个分位数,难以满足众多关键领域的应用需求。本文提出 QuEst,一个系统化框架,可融合观测与模拟数据,对一系列基于分位数的分布度量提供点估计和严格置信区间。该框架涵盖尾部风险(CVaR)、四分位数等核心指标,广泛应用于经济、社会学、教育、医学等领域。我们进一步将方法扩展至多维度量,并引入新优化技术,显著降低此类混合估计器的方差。实验验证了该框架在经济建模、民意调查及语言模型自评估中的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As machine learning models grow increasingly competent, their predictions can supplement scarce or expensive data in various important domains. In support of this paradigm, algorithms have emerged to combine a small amount of high-fidelity observed data with a much larger set of imputed model outputs to estimate some quantity of interest. Yet current hybrid-inference tools target only means or single quantiles, limiting their applicability for many critical domains and use cases. We present QuEst, a principled framework to merge observed and imputed data to deliver point estimates and rigorous confidence intervals for a wide family of quantile-based distributional measures. QuEst covers a range of measures, from tail risk (CVaR) to population segments such as quartiles, that are central to fields such as economics, sociology, education, medicine, and more. We extend QuEst to multidimensional metrics, and introduce an additional optimization technique to further reduce variance in this and other hybrid estimators. We demonstrate the utility of our framework through experiments in economic modeling, opinion polling, and language model auto-evaluation.

分布估计量化分析模型融合风险评估

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