arXiv:2507.05651cs.AI2025-07IJCAI被引 1

用司法文书数据预测城市外商投资,准确率超92%。

City-Level Foreign Direct Investment Prediction with Tabular Learning on Judicial Data

  • 构建司法绩效指标体系,整合千万级裁判文书
  • 提出混合专家模型,融合行与列数据提升预测精度
  • 适合关注区域经济政策与投资风险评估的研究者

为推进联合国可持续发展目标中关于促进包容性可持续经济增长的愿景,外商直接投资(FDI)在推动经济扩张和创新方面至关重要。精准预测城市层面的FDI对地方政府具有重要意义,传统研究多依赖经济数据(如GDP),但此类数据易被操纵,影响预测可靠性。为此,本文利用大规模司法数据,反映司法绩效对地方投资安全与回报的影响,构建基于十二万份公开裁判文书的司法绩效评价指标体系,并重构为表格数据集。在此基础上,提出一种面向司法数据的表格学习方法(TLJD),通过融合行与列数据编码司法绩效指标,并采用混合专家模型根据区域差异动态调整各指标权重。设计跨城市与跨时间任务验证方法有效性。大量实验表明,TLJD在不同评估指标下均优于10个主流基线,最高达到0.92 R²。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

To advance the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal on promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in catalyzing economic expansion and fostering innovation. Precise city-level FDI prediction is quite important for local government and is commonly studied based on economic data (e.g., GDP). However, such economic data could be prone to manipulation, making predictions less reliable. To address this issue, we try to leverage large-scale judicial data which reflects judicial performance influencing local investment security and returns, for city-level FDI prediction. Based on this, we first build an index system for the evaluation of judicial performance over twelve million publicly available adjudication documents according to which a tabular dataset is reformulated. We then propose a new Tabular Learning method on Judicial Data (TLJD) for city-level FDI prediction. TLJD integrates row data and column data in our built tabular dataset for judicial performance indicator encoding, and utilizes a mixture of experts model to adjust the weights of different indicators considering regional variations. To validate the effectiveness of TLJD, we design cross-city and cross-time tasks for city-level FDI predictions. Extensive experiments on both tasks demonstrate the superiority of TLJD (reach to at least 0.92 R2) over the other ten state-of-the-art baselines in different evaluation metrics.

城市预测司法数据表格学习外商投资

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