arXiv:2507.05994q-fin.PMcs.IT2025-07

提出新算法,让投资组合长期收益超越最优固定再平衡策略。

Beating the Best Constant Rebalancing Portfolio in Long-Term Investment: A Generalization of the Kelly Criterion and Universal Learning Algorithm for Markets with Serial Dependence

  • 利用资产收益的时序依赖性,仅凭逐步暴露的数据学习策略。
  • 在真实市场数据上,策略累积收益超越最佳固定再平衡组合。
  • 适用于有周期性效应的市场,适合长期量化投资研究者。

在在线投资组合优化框架中,现有学习算法虽渐近增长速率一致,但累积财富远低于事后最优的固定再平衡策略。本文提出一种新算法,仅依靠逐步揭示的数据学习资产收益的时序依赖性(如星期效应),无需分布假设,最终使策略累积财富超越最优固定再平衡组合。同时,将经典凯利准则推广至随机矩阵独立同分布市场,适应时序依赖。在传统算法失效的非平稳市场中,本算法仍能实现所有策略中的最高渐近增长率,与广义凯利最优策略一致。实证结果表明,只要时序依赖显著,该算法在真实市场数据上表现良好,验证了其理论优势与广泛应用潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the online portfolio optimization framework, existing learning algorithms generate strategies that yield significantly poorer cumulative wealth compared to the best constant rebalancing portfolio in hindsight, despite being consistent in asymptotic growth rate. While this unappealing performance can be improved by incorporating more side information, it raises difficulties in feature selection and high-dimensional settings. Instead, the inherent serial dependence of assets' returns, such as day-of-the-week and other calendar effects, can be leveraged. Although latent serial dependence patterns are commonly detected using large training datasets, this paper proposes an algorithm that learns such dependence using only gradually revealed data, without any assumption on their distribution, to form a strategy that eventually exceeds the cumulative wealth of the best constant rebalancing portfolio. Moreover, the classical Kelly criterion, which requires independent assets' returns, is generalized to accommodate serial dependence in a market modeled as an independent and identically distributed process of random matrices. In such a stochastic market, where existing learning algorithms designed for stationary processes fail to apply, the proposed learning algorithm still generates a strategy that asymptotically grows to the highest rate among all strategies, matching that of the optimal strategy constructed under the generalized Kelly criterion. The experimental results with real market data demonstrate the theoretical guarantees of the algorithm and its performance as expected, as long as serial dependence is significant, regardless of the validity of the generalized Kelly criterion in the experimental market. This further affirms the broad applicability of the algorithm in general contexts.

投资组合时序依赖凯利准则算法

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