用AI预测医院用电量并自动调节,节能效果显著。
AI-Based Demand Forecasting and Load Balancing for Optimising Energy use in Healthcare Systems: A real case study
- 用LSTM+遗传算法+SHAP分析,精准预测非线性用电需求。
- 相比传统模型,误差降低超50%,MAE仅21.69,RMSE为29.96。
- 适合医院能源管理、智慧医疗及低碳建筑领域参考。
本文针对医疗设施中波动性用电带来的能效挑战,提出一种融合LSTM、遗传算法(GA)与SHAP解释方法的AI框架。尽管LSTM广泛用于时序预测,其在医疗能耗场景的应用仍较有限。实验表明,LSTM在复杂非线性需求预测中表现优异,平均绝对误差(MAE)为21.69,均方根误差(RMSE)为29.96,显著优于Prophet(MAE: 59.78, RMSE: 81.22)和ARIMA(MAE: 87.73, RMSE: 125.22)。遗传算法优化模型参数与负载均衡策略,实现对实时用电波动的自适应响应。SHAP分析揭示各特征对预测的影响,提升决策透明度。该集成方法有效提升预测精度与能效,推动医疗设施可持续发展。未来可探索实时部署与强化学习融合以实现持续优化。研究为医疗能效管理提供了可扩展、高效且具备韧性潜力的AI解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper tackles the urgent need for efficient energy management in healthcare facilities, where fluctuating demands challenge operational efficiency and sustainability. Traditional methods often prove inadequate, causing inefficiencies and higher costs. To address this, the study presents an AI-based framework combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), genetic algorithm (GA), and SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), specifically designed for healthcare energy management. Although LSTM is widely used for time-series forecasting, its application in healthcare energy prediction remains underexplored. The results reveal that LSTM significantly outperforms ARIMA and Prophet models in forecasting complex, non-linear demand patterns. LSTM achieves a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 21.69 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 29.96, far better than Prophet (MAE: 59.78, RMSE: 81.22) and ARIMA (MAE: 87.73, RMSE: 125.22), demonstrating superior performance. The genetic algorithm is applied to optimize model parameters and improve load balancing strategies, enabling adaptive responses to real-time energy fluctuations. SHAP analysis further enhances model transparency by explaining the influence of different features on predictions, fostering trust in decision-making processes. This integrated LSTM-GA-SHAP approach offers a robust solution for improving forecasting accuracy, boosting energy efficiency, and advancing sustainability in healthcare facilities. Future research may explore real-time deployment and hybridization with reinforcement learning for continuous optimization. Overall, the study establishes a solid foundation for using AI in healthcare energy management, highlighting its scalability, efficiency, and resilience potential.
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