提出新方法分离治疗效应中的混杂与工具变量,提升因果推断准确性。
Deep Disentangled Representation Network for Treatment Effect Estimation
- 用多头注意力+专家混合模型软分解协变量,实现可学习的因子分离。
- 在真实和半合成数据上,对个体治疗效应估计的误差比现有方法降低12%-18%。
- 适合医疗、教育等需精准评估干预效果的领域研究者参考。
从观测数据中估计个体治疗效应是因果推断中的核心问题,在教育、医疗和公共政策等领域日益受到关注。现有方法多依赖生成模型或硬分解方式对协变量进行分解,难以保证因子的精确分离。为此,本文提出一种新型治疗效应估计算法,结合多头注意力的专家混合结构与线性正交正则化,实现对预处理变量的软分解,并通过重要性采样重加权技术同时消除选择偏差。我们在多个公开的半合成及真实生产数据集上进行了广泛实验,结果表明,该方法在个体治疗效应估计任务上显著优于当前最先进的方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Estimating individual-level treatment effect from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference and has attracted increasing attention in the fields of education, healthcare, and public policy.In this work, we concentrate on the study of disentangled representation methods that have shown promising outcomes by decomposing observed covariates into instrumental, confounding, and adjustment factors. However, most of the previous work has primarily revolved around generative models or hard decomposition methods for covariates, which often struggle to guarantee the attainment of precisely disentangled factors. In order to effectively model different causal relationships, we propose a novel treatment effect estimation algorithm that incorporates a mixture of experts with multi-head attention and a linear orthogonal regularizer to softly decompose the pre-treatment variables, and simultaneously eliminates selection bias via importance sampling re-weighting techniques. We conduct extensive experiments on both public semi-synthetic and real-world production datasets. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods focused on individual treatment effects.
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