arXiv:2507.06694cs.LGcs.SY2025-07被引 4

用异构图网络提升水电站多域状态预测精度

Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks for Short-term State Forecasting in Power Systems across Domains and Time Scales: A Hydroelectric Power Plant Case Study

  • 构建异构图注意力网络,融合水力与电力域传感器关系
  • 在跨域多速率场景下,平均误差降低35.5%
  • 适合需融合多物理域数据的能源系统预测任务

精准的短期状态预测对现代电力系统的高效稳定运行至关重要,尤其在可再生能源和分布式能源引入更多波动性背景下。随着系统快速演进,可靠预测其短期状态对保障运行稳定、支持控制决策及实现传感器与设备行为的可解释监控尤为关键。现代电力系统常跨越电气、机械、液压、热力等多个物理域,给建模与预测带来挑战。图神经网络(GNN)作为数据驱动的框架,在此类系统中展现出潜力,能利用传感器网络拓扑结构隐式学习传感器间关联并传播信息。然而,现有多数GNN方法基于同质传感器关系假设,通常局限于单一物理域,难以整合真实能源系统中常见的异构传感器数据,如能源转换基础设施中的数据。本文提出使用异构图注意力网络(HGAT)解决此问题。该方法建模了水力与电力两个不同物理域间的同质内域关系与异质跨域关系,二者具有根本不同的时间动态特性。实验结果表明,该方法在标准化均方根误差上平均比主流基线提升35.5%,验证了其在多域、多速率电力系统状态预测中的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate short-term state forecasting is essential for efficient and stable operation of modern power systems, especially in the context of increasing variability introduced by renewable and distributed energy resources. As these systems evolve rapidly, it becomes increasingly important to reliably predict their states in the short term to ensure operational stability, support control decisions, and enable interpretable monitoring of sensor and machine behavior. Modern power systems often span multiple physical domains - including electrical, mechanical, hydraulic, and thermal - posing significant challenges for modeling and prediction. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising data-driven framework for system state estimation and state forecasting in such settings. By leveraging the topological structure of sensor networks, GNNs can implicitly learn inter-sensor relationships and propagate information across the network. However, most existing GNN-based methods are designed under the assumption of homogeneous sensor relationships and are typically constrained to a single physical domain. This limitation restricts their ability to integrate and reason over heterogeneous sensor data commonly encountered in real-world energy systems, such as those used in energy conversion infrastructure. In this work, we propose the use of Heterogeneous Graph Attention Networks to address these limitations. Our approach models both homogeneous intra-domain and heterogeneous inter-domain relationships among sensor data from two distinct physical domains - hydraulic and electrical - which exhibit fundamentally different temporal dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms conventional baselines on average by 35.5% in terms of normalized root mean square error, confirming its effectiveness in multi-domain, multi-rate power system state forecasting.

图神经网络状态预测水电站多域建模

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