arXiv:2507.07012stat.APcs.LG2025-07中稿 · ISTTT26被引 4

建模驾驶行为中无法用上下文解释的随机性,提升交通模拟准确性。

When Context Is Not Enough: Modeling Unexplained Variability in Car-Following Behavior

  • 用可解释的随机框架捕捉驾驶中的隐含变量影响
  • 在HighD数据集上预测精度优于传统方法,不确定性量化更准确
  • 适合交通分析与安全关键场景,兼具可解释性与高精度

微观交通仿真依赖对跟车行为的建模,但传统确定性模型难以捕捉人类驾驶的全部变异性与不可预测性。尽管现代方法引入了间距、速度等上下文信息,却常忽略由潜意识驾驶意图、感知误差和记忆效应带来的结构性随机性——这些因素无法仅从上下文推断。为此,本文提出一种可解释的随机建模框架,不仅捕捉上下文依赖的动力学,还建模上下文无法解释的残余变异性。结合深度神经网络与非平稳高斯过程,模型采用情境自适应的Gibbs核,学习加速度决策间的动态时间相关性,其相关性强度与持续时间随驾驶情境变化。该方法实现了加速度、速度和间距的原理性、数据驱动不确定性量化,基于可观测上下文与潜在行为变异。在德国高速公路自然驾驶轨迹数据集(HighD)上的实验证明,该框架在预测性能和可解释不确定性量化方面均超越传统方法。可解释性与准确性的结合使其成为交通分析与安全关键应用的有力工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modeling car-following behavior is fundamental to microscopic traffic simulation, yet traditional deterministic models often fail to capture the full extent of variability and unpredictability in human driving. While many modern approaches incorporate context-aware inputs (e.g., spacing, speed, relative speed), they frequently overlook structured stochasticity that arises from latent driver intentions, perception errors, and memory effects -- factors that are not directly observable from context alone. To fill the gap, this study introduces an interpretable stochastic modeling framework that captures not only context-dependent dynamics but also residual variability beyond what context can explain. Leveraging deep neural networks integrated with nonstationary Gaussian processes (GPs), our model employs a scenario-adaptive Gibbs kernel to learn dynamic temporal correlations in acceleration decisions, where the strength and duration of correlations between acceleration decisions evolve with the driving context. This formulation enables a principled, data-driven quantification of uncertainty in acceleration, speed, and spacing, grounded in both observable context and latent behavioral variability. Comprehensive experiments on the naturalistic vehicle trajectory dataset collected from the German highway, i.e., the HighD dataset, demonstrate that the proposed stochastic simulation method within this framework surpasses conventional methods in both predictive performance and interpretable uncertainty quantification. The integration of interpretability and accuracy makes this framework a promising tool for traffic analysis and safety-critical applications.

交通仿真随机建模可解释性驾驶行为

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