发现海冰退缩与南极冰架融化间的非局部空间关联，揭示其连锁影响机制。
Modeling Heterogeneity across Varying Spatial Extents: Discovering Linkages between Sea Ice Retreat and Ice Shelve Melt in the Antarctic
- 构建基于卫星数据的图结构模型，捕捉海冰与冰架间空间异质性关联。
- 识别出海冰退缩可引发或加剧下游冰架融化，存在非局部耦合路径。
- 适用于气候建模与海平面上升预测，助力应对气候变化。
空间现象常在不同空间尺度和邻近关系上表现出异质性，尤其在冰架与海冰等动态区域建模难度大。本文探索海冰退缩与南极冰架（AIS）融化的关联。尽管大气强迫和底部融化已被广泛研究，但海冰退缩对AIS质量损失的直接影响仍被忽视。传统模型将海冰与冰架视为独立系统，难以捕捉局部关联与级联反馈。为此，我们提出一种新型图基框架Spatial-Link，量化空间异质性以揭示两者间的联系。该方法利用卫星反演的冰变化矩阵，通过Delaunay三角剖分构建空间图，节点代表显著变化区域，边编码邻近性和方向一致性。采用广度优先搜索与蒙特卡洛模拟提取并统计验证关联路径。结果揭示非局部、空间异质性耦合模式，表明海冰流失可启动或放大下游冰架融化。分析显示海冰退缩沿海洋网格演化并向冰架推进，建立了直接关联。据我们所知，这是首个将海冰退缩与冰架融化相链接的方法。Spatial-Link提供了一种可扩展、数据驱动的工具，有助于提升海平面上升预测能力，并为气候适应策略提供依据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Spatial phenomena often exhibit heterogeneity across spatial extents and in proximity, making them complex to model-especially in dynamic regions like ice shelves and sea ice. In this study, we address this challenge by exploring the linkages between sea ice retreat and Antarctic ice shelf (AIS) melt. Although atmospheric forcing and basal melting have been widely studied, the direct impact of sea ice retreat on AIS mass loss remains underexplored. Traditional models treat sea ice and AIS as separate systems. It limits their ability to capture localized linkages and cascading feedback. To overcome this, we propose Spatial-Link, a novel graph-based framework that quantifies spatial heterogeneity to capture linkages between sea ice retreat and AIS melt. Our method constructs a spatial graph using Delaunay triangulation of satellite-derived ice change matrices, where nodes represent regions of significant change and edges encode proximity and directional consistency. We extract and statistically validate linkage paths using breadth-first search and Monte Carlo simulations. Results reveal non-local, spatially heterogeneous coupling patterns, suggesting sea ice loss can initiate or amplify downstream AIS melt. Our analysis shows how sea ice retreat evolves over an oceanic grid and progresses toward ice shelves-establishing a direct linkage. To our knowledge, this is the first proposed methodology linking sea ice retreat to AIS melt. Spatial-Link offers a scalable, data-driven tool to improve sea-level rise projections and inform climate adaptation strategies.
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