用条件高斯柯尔莫哥洛夫网络,高效预测复杂系统的状态并实现精准数据同化。
Modeling Partially Observed Nonlinear Dynamical Systems and Efficient Data Assimilation via Discrete-Time Conditional Gaussian Koopman Network
- 基于柯尔莫哥洛夫嵌入发现隐状态,使系统在观测下呈条件线性。
- 通过解析公式实现快速数据同化,状态预测精度媲美顶尖科学机器学习方法。
- 适合需融合模型与数据的工程、地球科学场景,支持优化与控制等下游任务。
本文提出离散时间条件高斯柯尔莫哥洛夫网络(CGKN),用于学习高维复杂动力系统的代理模型,实现高效的态预测与数据同化(DA)。针对工程与地球科学中常见的非线性部分可观测系统,利用柯尔莫哥洛夫嵌入发现未观测状态的合适隐表示,使隐状态的动力学在给定观测状态下为条件线性。由此构建的观测与隐状态联合系统为条件高斯系统,其后验分布为高斯分布,可通过解析公式高效计算。该解析表达式使数据同化性能可融入模型学习过程,形成统一的科学机器学习(SciML)与数据同化框架。在包含间歇性与湍流特性的典型非线性偏微分方程问题上验证,包括黏性伯格斯方程、库拉莫-希瓦辛斯基方程及二维纳维-斯托克斯方程,结果表明离散时间CGKN在状态预测上达到与最先进SciML方法相当的性能,并提供高效准确的数据同化结果。该框架亦展示了将SciML模型与其外层应用(如设计优化、反问题、最优控制)统一开发的可能性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A discrete-time conditional Gaussian Koopman network (CGKN) is developed in this work to learn surrogate models that can perform efficient state forecast and data assimilation (DA) for high-dimensional complex dynamical systems, e.g., systems governed by nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). Focusing on nonlinear partially observed systems that are common in many engineering and earth science applications, this work exploits Koopman embedding to discover a proper latent representation of the unobserved system states, such that the dynamics of the latent states are conditional linear, i.e., linear with the given observed system states. The modeled system of the observed and latent states then becomes a conditional Gaussian system, for which the posterior distribution of the latent states is Gaussian and can be efficiently evaluated via analytical formulae. The analytical formulae of DA facilitate the incorporation of DA performance into the learning process of the modeled system, which leads to a framework that unifies scientific machine learning (SciML) and data assimilation. The performance of discrete-time CGKN is demonstrated on several canonical problems governed by nonlinear PDEs with intermittency and turbulent features, including the viscous Burgers' equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and the 2-D Navier-Stokes equations, with which we show that the discrete-time CGKN framework achieves comparable performance as the state-of-the-art SciML methods in state forecast and provides efficient and accurate DA results. The discrete-time CGKN framework also serves as an example to illustrate unifying the development of SciML models and their other outer-loop applications such as design optimization, inverse problems, and optimal control.
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