用客户生命周期价值重新评估预测模型,让利润更真实地反映在算法选择中。
e-Profits: A Business-Aligned Evaluation Metric for Profit-Sensitive Customer Churn Prediction
- 基于客户留存概率与干预成本,用生存分析估算每人的保留率。
- 在两个电信数据集上,新指标使模型排名改变,发现被传统指标忽略的高收益模型。
- 适合关注客户利润和精准营销的业务决策者使用。
客户关系管理中的留存推广常依赖传统评估指标(如AUC、F1-score)来判断流失预测模型效果,但这些指标无法反映财务结果,可能误导战略决策。本文提出e-Profits,一种以业务为导向的新评估指标,根据客户生命周期价值、留存概率和干预成本量化模型表现。不同于现有利润指标(如期望最大利润)假设全局固定参数,e-Profits采用Kaplan-Meier生存分析,估计基于使用时长的客户级单期留存概率,支持逐客户利润评估。我们在IBM Telco和Maven Telecom两个电信数据集上对比六种分类器,发现e-Profits改变了模型排名,揭示了传统指标未识别出的财务优势。该指标还提供分群洞察,帮助识别对高价值客户最有利的模型。e-Profits构建了一个透明、客户级的评估框架,连接预测建模与利润驱动的运营决策。全部代码已开源:https://github.com/Awaismanzoor/eprofits。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Retention campaigns in customer relationship management often rely on churn prediction models evaluated using traditional metrics such as AUC and F1-score. However, these metrics fail to reflect financial outcomes and may mislead strategic decisions. We introduce e-Profits, a novel business-aligned evaluation metric that quantifies model performance based on customer lifetime value, retention probability, and intervention costs. Unlike existing profit-based metrics such as Expected Maximum Profit, which assume fixed population-level parameters, e-Profits uses Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to estimate tenure-conditioned (customer-level) one-period retention probabilities and supports granular, per-customer profit evaluation. We benchmark six classifiers across two telecom datasets (IBM Telco and Maven Telecom) and demonstrate that e-Profits reshapes model rankings compared to traditional metrics, revealing financial advantages in models previously overlooked by AUC or F1-score. The metric also enables segment-level insight into which models maximise return on investment for high-value customers. e-Profits provides a transparent, customer-level evaluation framework that bridges predictive modelling and profit-driven decision-making in operational churn management. All source code is available at: https://github.com/Awaismanzoor/eprofits.
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