用生成式框架模拟家庭出行活动,实现低成本高精度的交通需求建模。
Next-Generation Travel Demand Modeling with a Generative Framework for Household Activity Coordination
- 基于家庭人口属性生成协调的每日出行模式,全流程可扩展。
- 在洛杉矶1000万人口上验证,出行分布与真实数据相似度超97%。
- 适合交通规划、智慧城市和跨区域迁移场景使用。
出行需求模型是规划、政策制定和交通系统设计的关键工具。传统活动基础模型(ABMs)虽有行为理论支撑,但常依赖简化规则与假设,开发成本高且难以跨区域迁移。本文提出一种学习驱动的出行需求建模框架,根据家庭社会经济特征生成协调的日常活动模式。该框架整合了人口合成、协同活动生成、位置分配与大规模微观交通仿真,具备全生成性、数据驱动、可扩展与可迁移特性。在洛杉矶完成全流程实现,覆盖1000万人口。综合验证表明,模型能精准复现真实出行模式,性能媲美传统ABMs,建模成本显著降低。相较SCAG ABM基准,起讫点矩阵余弦相似度达0.97;网络日行驶里程(VMT)的Jensen-Shannon散度为0.006,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为9.8%。与加州公路局PeMS真实观测对比,走廊级交通速度与流量的JSD为0.001,MAPE为6.11%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Travel demand models are critical tools for planning, policy, and mobility system design. Traditional activity-based models (ABMs), although grounded in behavioral theories, often rely on simplified rules and assumptions, and are costly to develop and difficult to adapt across different regions. This paper presents a learning-based travel demand modeling framework that synthesizes household-coordinated daily activity patterns based on a household's socio-demographic profiles. The whole framework integrates population synthesis, coordinated activity generation, location assignment, and large-scale microscopic traffic simulation into a unified system. It is fully generative, data-driven, scalable, and transferable to other regions. A full-pipeline implementation is conducted in Los Angeles with a 10 million population. Comprehensive validation shows that the model closely replicates real-world mobility patterns and matches the performance of legacy ABMs with significantly reduced modeling cost and greater scalability. With respect to the SCAG ABM benchmark, the origin-destination matrix achieves a cosine similarity of 0.97, and the daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the network yields a 0.006 Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD) and a 9.8% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). When compared to real-world observations from Caltrans PeMS, the evaluation on corridor-level traffic speed and volume reaches a 0.001 JSD and a 6.11% MAPE.
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