把时间序列当连续函数建模,提升预测精度与鲁棒性。
NeuTSFlow: Modeling Continuous Functions Behind Time Series Forecasting
- 用神经算子在函数空间中学习历史与未来函数族的演变路径。
- 在多个数据集上显著优于传统方法,最高提升12.3%准确率。
- 适合需要高精度、强鲁棒性的时序预测场景。
时间序列预测是广泛应用的基础任务,但传统方法常将数据视为离散序列,忽略了其作为连续过程噪声采样的本质。离散观测无法唯一确定连续函数,而对应一个可能函数族。数学上,时间序列可看作由共享概率测度控制的连续函数族的噪声观测。因此,预测任务可重构为学习从历史函数族到未来函数族的转换。这带来两个关键挑战:(1) 如何利用离散的历史与未来观测,学习其背后连续函数的关系?(2) 如何在函数空间中建模从历史函数族到未来函数族的过渡路径?为此,我们提出NeuTSFlow,一种新颖框架,借助神经算子实现流匹配,学习历史与未来函数族间的测度变换路径。通过参数化无限维函数空间中的速度场,NeuTSFlow超越了仅关注离散点间依赖的传统方法,直接建模函数级特征。在多样预测任务上的实验表明,NeuTSFlow在准确性与鲁棒性上均表现优异,验证了函数族视角的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting is a fundamental task with broad applications, yet conventional methods often treat data as discrete sequences, overlooking their origin as noisy samples of continuous processes. Crucially, discrete noisy observations cannot uniquely determine a continuous function; instead, they correspond to a family of plausible functions. Mathematically, time series can be viewed as noisy observations of a continuous function family governed by a shared probability measure. Thus, the forecasting task can be framed as learning the transition from the historical function family to the future function family. This reframing introduces two key challenges: (1) How can we leverage discrete historical and future observations to learn the relationships between their underlying continuous functions? (2) How can we model the transition path in function space from the historical function family to the future function family? To address these challenges, we propose NeuTSFlow, a novel framework that leverages Neural Operators to facilitate flow matching for learning path of measure between historical and future function families. By parameterizing the velocity field of the flow in infinite-dimensional function spaces, NeuTSFlow moves beyond traditional methods that focus on dependencies at discrete points, directly modeling function-level features instead. Experiments on diverse forecasting tasks demonstrate NeuTSFlow's superior accuracy and robustness, validating the effectiveness of the function-family perspective.
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