arXiv:2507.10098cs.CL2025-07被引 6

融合大模型与时间变换器,提升时序预测准确性

Fusing Large Language Models with Temporal Transformers for Time Series Forecasting

  • 用大模型语义能力+时间变换器时序建模,互补融合表示
  • 在基准数据集上优于纯Transformer和直接使用大模型的方法
  • 适合需要理解上下文语义的复杂时序预测任务

近期大语言模型(LLMs)在多种任务中展现出强大能力,被用于时序预测(TSF),即根据历史时序数据预测未来值。现有方法通过提示或微调将文本知识迁移到时序预测,但LLMs擅长处理离散标记和语义模式,不原生适配连续数值时序数据。这种差异导致其性能低于直接在时序数据上训练的原始Transformer模型。而原始Transformer难以捕捉高层语义模式。本文设计一种新型Transformer架构,互补融合LLM与原始Transformer:将LLM学习到的高层语义表示与时间变换器编码的时间动态信息融合,生成混合表示。该表示同时包含历史时序动态与语义变化模式,使模型能更准确预测未来值。在基准数据集上的实验验证了该方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated powerful capabilities in performing various tasks and thus are applied by recent studies to time series forecasting (TSF) tasks, which predict future values with the given historical time series. Existing LLM-based approaches transfer knowledge learned from text data to time series prediction using prompting or fine-tuning strategies. However, LLMs are proficient at reasoning over discrete tokens and semantic patterns but are not initially designed to model continuous numerical time series data. The gaps between text and time series data lead LLMs to achieve inferior performance to a vanilla Transformer model that is directly trained on TSF data. However, the vanilla Transformers often struggle to learn high-level semantic patterns. In this paper, we design a novel Transformer-based architecture that complementarily leverages LLMs and vanilla Transformers, so as to integrate the high-level semantic representations learned by LLMs into the temporal information encoded by time series Transformers, where a hybrid representation is obtained by fusing the representations from the LLM and the Transformer. The resulting fused representation contains both historical temporal dynamics and semantic variation patterns, allowing our model to predict more accurate future values. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

时序预测大模型Transformer

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