arXiv:2507.10626cs.LGcs.AI2025-07

用图模型融合球员与球队互动,提升足球比赛结果预测准确率

Player-Team Heterogeneous Interaction Graph Transformer for Soccer Outcome Prediction

  • 构建多层级交互图网络,分别捕捉球员级和球队级动态
  • 在WyScout数据集上预测准确率显著优于现有方法
  • 适合用于球员评估与球队战术分析的深度洞察

足球比赛结果预测因游戏内在不确定性及众多动态因素而极具挑战。传统方法依赖精细特征工程,而深度学习近年展现出直接学习球员与球队表征的潜力。然而,现有方法常忽视球员与球队间异质性互动这一关键因素。为此,我们提出HIGFormer(异质交互图Transformer),一种基于图增强的Transformer深度学习模型。该模型包含:(1) 球员交互网络,通过异质交互图结合局部图卷积与全局图增强Transformer编码球员表现;(2) 球队交互网络,从球队间视角构建交互图以建模历史比赛关系;(3) 比赛对比Transformer,联合分析球队与球员层级信息以预测结果。在大规模真实世界数据集WyScout Open Access Dataset上的实验表明,HIGFormer显著优于现有方法。此外,模型还为球员表现评估提供了新视角,助力人才发掘与战术分析。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting soccer match outcomes is a challenging task due to the inherently unpredictable nature of the game and the numerous dynamic factors influencing results. While it conventionally relies on meticulous feature engineering, deep learning techniques have recently shown a great promise in learning effective player and team representations directly for soccer outcome prediction. However, existing methods often overlook the heterogeneous nature of interactions among players and teams, which is crucial for accurately modeling match dynamics. To address this gap, we propose HIGFormer (Heterogeneous Interaction Graph Transformer), a novel graph-augmented transformer-based deep learning model for soccer outcome prediction. HIGFormer introduces a multi-level interaction framework that captures both fine-grained player dynamics and high-level team interactions. Specifically, it comprises (1) a Player Interaction Network, which encodes player performance through heterogeneous interaction graphs, combining local graph convolutions with a global graph-augmented transformer; (2) a Team Interaction Network, which constructs interaction graphs from a team-to-team perspective to model historical match relationships; and (3) a Match Comparison Transformer, which jointly analyzes both team and player-level information to predict match outcomes. Extensive experiments on the WyScout Open Access Dataset, a large-scale real-world soccer dataset, demonstrate that HIGFormer significantly outperforms existing methods in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights into leveraging our model for player performance evaluation, offering a new perspective on talent scouting and team strategy analysis.

足球预测图神经网络深度学习体育分析

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