根据行为预测不确定性动态调整干预时机,提升移动健康干预的及时性。
SigmaScheduling: Uncertainty-Informed Scheduling of Decision Points for Intelligent Mobile Health Interventions
- 基于行为时间预测的不确定性动态调整决策点时间
- 在70%以上情况下确保干预前完成决策点设置
- 适合规律性差的用户,尤其适用于口腔护理等习惯行为
及时决策对移动健康(mHealth)干预效果至关重要。在称为‘决策点’的预设时间,智能mHealth系统(如即时自适应干预,JITAI)从传感器或调查数据中估算个体的生物行为状态,并决定是否以及如何干预。针对习惯性行为(如刷牙),有效干预通常需在行为发生前短时间内进行。当前做法将决策点固定在用户提供的行为时间前一小时,且对所有人使用相同间隔。然而,这种‘一刀切’策略对作息不规律者效果差,常导致决策点落在行为之后,使干预失效。本文提出SigmaScheduling,一种根据行为时间预测不确定性动态调度决策点的方法:当行为时间更可预测时,决策点靠近预测时间;当不确定性高时,提前调度,提高及时干预的可能性。我们在68名参与者参与为期10周的Oralytics试验中验证该方法,该试验旨在改善每日刷牙行为。结果显示,SigmaScheduling使至少70%的决策点发生在刷牙事件之前,有效保留了干预机会。结果表明,SigmaScheduling可推动精准mHealth发展,特别适用于口腔卫生、饮食习惯等时间敏感的习惯行为干预。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Timely decision making is critical to the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) interventions. At predefined timepoints called "decision points," intelligent mHealth systems such as just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) estimate an individual's biobehavioral context from sensor or survey data and determine whether and how to intervene. For interventions targeting habitual behavior (e.g., oral hygiene), effectiveness often hinges on delivering support shortly before the target behavior is likely to occur. Current practice schedules decision points at a fixed interval (e.g., one hour) before user-provided behavior times, and the fixed interval is kept the same for all individuals. However, this one-size-fits-all approach performs poorly for individuals with irregular routines, often scheduling decision points after the target behavior has already occurred, rendering interventions ineffective. In this paper, we propose SigmaScheduling, a method to dynamically schedule decision points based on uncertainty in predicted behavior times. When behavior timing is more predictable, SigmaScheduling schedules decision points closer to the predicted behavior time; when timing is less certain, SigmaScheduling schedules decision points earlier, increasing the likelihood of timely intervention. We evaluated SigmaScheduling using real-world data from 68 participants in a 10-week trial of Oralytics, a JITAI designed to improve daily toothbrushing. SigmaScheduling increased the likelihood that decision points preceded brushing events in at least 70% of cases, preserving opportunities to intervene and impact behavior. Our results indicate that SigmaScheduling can advance precision mHealth, particularly for JITAIs targeting time-sensitive, habitual behaviors such as oral hygiene or dietary habits.
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