用轻量CNN模型实现高精度天气预报,训练快12小时
Modernizing CNN-based Weather Forecast Model towards Higher Computational Efficiency
- 采用自适应结构与地理感知设计,优化传统CNN架构
- 700万参数,单卡12小时完成训练,性能媲美顶尖模型
- 适合资源有限但需快速部署的气象预测场景
近期基于AI的天气预报模型取得显著进展,其精度已接近传统数值预报系统。然而,多数模型依赖参数量庞大的Transformer架构,导致训练复杂度和资源消耗高。本文提出一种现代化的CNN基天气预报模型KAI-a,兼顾高精度与低计算开销。该模型通过尺度不变结构与InceptionNeXt模块,在地球系统数据结构感知下进行设计。在包含67个大气变量的ERA5每日数据集上训练,模型参数约700万,仅需12小时即可在单块NVIDIA L40s GPU上完成训练。评估显示,其在中短期天气预报中的表现可比肩先进模型,且模型更为轻量。对2018年欧洲热浪及东亚夏季风的案例研究也验证了其捕捉极端事件的稳健能力,凸显实际应用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recently, AI-based weather forecast models have achieved impressive advances. These models have reached accuracy levels comparable to traditional NWP systems, marking a significant milestone in data-driven weather prediction. However, they mostly leverage Transformer-based architectures, which often leads to high training complexity and resource demands due to the massive parameter sizes. In this study, we introduce a modernized CNN-based model for global weather forecasting that delivers competitive accuracy while significantly reducing computational requirements. To present a systematic modernization roadmap, we highlight key architectural enhancements across multiple design scales from an earlier CNN-based approach. KAI-a incorporates a scale-invariant architecture and InceptionNeXt-based blocks within a geophysically-aware design, tailored to the structure of Earth system data. Trained on the ERA5 daily dataset with 67 atmospheric variables, the model contains about 7 million parameters and completes training in just 12 hours on a single NVIDIA L40s GPU. Our evaluation shows that KAI-a matches the performance of state-of-the-art models in medium-range weather forecasting, while offering a significantly lightweight design. Furthermore, case studies on the 2018 European heatwave and the East Asian summer monsoon demonstrate KAI-a's robust skill in capturing extreme events, reinforcing its practical utility.
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