arXiv:2507.10986cs.LG2025-07

用物理先验增强大模型,提升恒星耀斑预测准确率

StellarF: A Physics-Informed LoRA Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting with Historical & Statistical Data

  • 融合物理规律与历史数据,通过LoRA微调大语言模型
  • 在开普勒和TESS数据集上达到最新性能,提升预测精度
  • 适合天体物理与时间序列预测研究者参考

恒星耀斑预测是天体物理学的关键前沿,对理解恒星活动机制和系外行星宜居性评估具有重要意义。然而,耀斑的不可预测性源于恒星多样性与演化阶段差异,导致三大挑战:(1) 传统观测数据稀疏、不完整且含噪;(2) 单一表征难以捕捉多尺度耀斑演化过程;(3) 数据驱动模型缺乏物理先验,可解释性差。为此,我们提出StellarF,一种融合通用AI与天体物理知识的物理感知框架,包含三个核心组件:统一的数据预处理流程(缺失值填补、时间片段分割、自适应样本筛选);基于一阶差分增强、耀斑统计信息与历史记录模块的LoRA微调大语言模型骨干网络,实现多模态融合;以及嵌入最小上升速率先验的新型物理感知损失函数,与交叉熵损失联合使用以符合耀斑物理规律。在开普勒与TESS数据集上的大量实验表明,StellarF在关键指标上达到当前最优表现,树立了新基准。该工作打通通用AI与天体物理的边界,为时域天文中的瞬变事件预测提供了可解释、实用的新范式。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Stellar flare forecasting represents a critical frontier in astrophysics, offering profound insights into stellar activity mechanisms and exoplanetary habitability assessments. Yet the inherent unpredictability of flare activity, rooted in stellar diversity and evolutionary stages, underpins the field's core challenges: (1) sparse, incomplete, noisy lightcurve data from traditional observations; (2) ineffective multi-scale flare evolution capture via single representations; (3) poor physical interpretability in data-driven models lacking physics-informed priors. To address these challenges, we propose StellarF, a physics-informed framework synergizing general Al with astrophysical domain knowledge via three core components: a unified preprocessing pipeline for lightcurve refinement (missing-value imputation, temporal patch partitioning, adaptive sample filtering); a Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA)-finetuned large language model (LLM) backbone enhanced by first-order difference augmentation, flare statistical information, and flare historical record modules for multimodal fusion instead of only simple representations; and a novel physics-informed loss embedding a minimum rising rate prior, appended to the cross-entropy loss, to align with flare physics. Extensive experiments on Kepler and TESS datasets show StellarF achieves state-of-the-art performance across key metrics, setting new benchmarks for flare forecasting. This work bridges general AI with astrophysics, offering a practical, physically interpretable paradigm for transient event forecasting in time-domain astronomy.

耀斑预测物理信息LoRA时间序列

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