arXiv:2507.11012cs.LG2025-07

用温度数据预测火灾湍流,机器学习实现高精度建模

Leveraging Advanced Machine Learning to Predict Turbulence Dynamics from Temperature Observations at an Experimental Prescribed Fire

  • 通过10Hz温度数据训练多种机器学习模型预测湍流动能
  • 模型准确率显著高于原始数据相关性,尤其回归类模型表现突出
  • 适用于火行为研究与烟雾模拟,助力火灾管理决策

本研究利用在新泽西松林实验燃烧中以10 Hz采样获得的温度与湍流同步数据,探索从易获取的温度数据预测湍流动能(TKE)的可行性。采用深度神经网络、随机森林回归器、梯度提升和高斯过程回归器等机器学习模型,分析温度扰动与TKE之间的时空相关性。尽管预测变量与目标变量间相关性较弱,但多类模型仍实现了对TKE的高精度预测。结果表明,该方法可有效揭示火场内外温度与气流过程的新关系,有助于深化对燃烧环境过程及其耦合/解耦机制的理解,为优化火灾作业策略及火情与烟雾模型提供支持。研究凸显了机器学习在处理复杂火灾大数据中的关键作用,推动了火灾科研与管理实践的发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study explores the potential for predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) from more readily acquired temperature data using temperature profiles and turbulence data collected concurrently at 10 Hz during a small experimental prescribed burn in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Machine learning models, including Deep Neural Networks, Random Forest Regressor, Gradient Boosting, and Gaussian Process Regressor, were employed to assess the potential to predict TKE from temperature perturbations and explore temporal and spatial dynamics of correlations. Data visualization and correlation analyses revealed patterns and relationships between thermocouple temperatures and TKE, providing insight into the underlying dynamics. More accurate predictions of TKE were achieved by employing various machine learning models despite a weak correlation between the predictors and the target variable. The results demonstrate significant success, particularly from regression models, in accurately predicting the TKE. The findings of this study demonstrate a novel numerical approach to identifying new relationships between temperature and airflow processes in and around the fire environment. These relationships can help refine our understanding of combustion environment processes and the coupling and decoupling of fire environment processes necessary for improving fire operations strategy and fire and smoke model predictions. The findings of this study additionally highlight the valuable role of machine learning techniques in analyzing the complex large datasets of the fire environments, showcasing their potential to advance fire research and management practices.

湍流预测机器学习火灾模拟温度数据

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