arXiv:2507.11185cs.LGcs.AI2025-07被引 5

用机器学习提升心脏病诊断与风险预测准确率,结果可解释。

Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Cardiovascular Disease Diagnosis and Prognosis

  • 融合分类与回归模型,统一处理疾病检测与风险预测。
  • 随机森林分类准确率达97.2%,线性回归预测R²达0.992。
  • 引入可解释AI,适合临床医生辅助决策使用。

心脏病仍是全球重大健康问题,尤其在医疗资源匮乏地区。传统诊断方法常无法准确识别和管理风险,导致不良后果。机器学习为提升心血管疾病诊断与预后的精确性和可靠性提供了有力工具。本研究提出一种统一框架,结合分类技术检测心脏病,使用回归技术预测相关风险。分析基于名为Heart Disease的数据集,包含1,035个实例。为缓解数据不平衡问题,采用SMOTE生成10万条合成样本。评估指标包括F1-score、召回率、精确率、准确率、MAE、RMSE、MSE和R2。在分类算法中,随机森林表现最佳,在真实数据上准确率达0.972,在合成数据上达0.976。在预测建模中,线性回归对合成与真实样本的R2值分别为0.992和0.984,误差最小。此外,采用可解释人工智能方法提升模型结果的可理解性。该研究强调机器学习在心脏病诊断与风险评估中的变革潜力,有助于及时干预并改善临床实践。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Heart disease continues to pose a critical worldwide health issue, more specifically in areas with insufficient access to healthcare infrastructure and diagnostic systems. Conventional diagnostic approaches often fall short in accurately detecting and managing heart disease risks, resulting in unfavorable outcomes. Machine learning presents a powerful means to boost the precision and reliability of cardiovascular disease prognosis and diagnosis. In this research, we introduced a unified approach incorporating classification techniques for detecting heart disease and regression techniques for forecasting associated risks. The analysis utilized the dataset, named Heart Disease, containing 1,035 instances. To mitigate the problem of data disproportion, the SMOTE was implemented, producing 100,000 additional synthetic samples. Evaluation metrics such as F1-score, recall, precision, accuracy, MAE, RMSE, MSE, and R2 were adopted to evaluate the performance of the models. Among the classification algorithms, Random Forest delivered the most notable results, attaining an accuracy of 0.972 on actual data and 0.976 on artificially generated data. For prediction modeling, for both synthetic and real samples, linear regression produced the best R2 values of 0.992 and 0.984, respectively, along with the least amount of measurement errors. Furthermore, Explainable AI methods were utilized to improve the comprehensibility of the model outcomes. This paper emphasizes the transformative capabilities of machine learning for diagnosing cardiovascular disease and estimating risk levels, thereby supporting timely interventions and enhancing clinical settings.

心脏病机器学习可解释性预测

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