arXiv:2507.11574cs.LGcs.AI2025-07被引 2

无需假设数据分布,实时给出可信的传感器预测不确定性。

Distribution-Free Uncertainty-Aware Virtual Sensing via Conformalized Neural Operators

  • 在深度神经算子中融合蒙特卡洛丢弃与分片可证实方法
  • 三种应用中均实现接近理论覆盖率的不确定度区间
  • 适合数字孪生、安全监控等对可靠性要求高的场景

在高风险领域,稀疏、噪声大或非共位的传感器数据普遍存在,鲁棒的不确定性量化仍是深度学习在实时虚拟传感中安全部署的关键障碍。我们提出共形化蒙特卡洛算子(CMCO),一种将基于神经算子的虚拟传感转化为校准的、分布无关预测区间的框架。通过在单一DeepONet架构中统一蒙特卡洛丢弃与分片可证实预测,CMCO可在不重新训练、不集成、不设计特定损失函数的情况下实现空间分辨的不确定性估计。该方法解决了长期挑战:如何为算子学习提供高效可靠的不确定性量化,适用于异构领域。在湍流、弹塑性变形和全球宇宙辐射剂量估计三个不同应用场景中,即使存在强空间梯度和代理传感,CMCO始终达到接近理论覆盖率的实证覆盖效果。这一突破为神经算子提供了通用、即插即用的不确定性量化解决方案,推动了数字孪生、传感器融合与安全关键监控中的实时可信推理。通过以极小计算开销连接理论与实际部署,CMCO建立了可扩展、泛化性强且具备不确定性感知的科学机器学习新基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) remains a critical barrier to the safe deployment of deep learning in real-time virtual sensing, particularly in high-stakes domains where sparse, noisy, or non-collocated sensor data are the norm. We introduce the Conformalized Monte Carlo Operator (CMCO), a framework that transforms neural operator-based virtual sensing with calibrated, distribution-free prediction intervals. By unifying Monte Carlo dropout with split conformal prediction in a single DeepONet architecture, CMCO achieves spatially resolved uncertainty estimates without retraining, ensembling, or custom loss design. Our method addresses a longstanding challenge: how to endow operator learning with efficient and reliable UQ across heterogeneous domains. Through rigorous evaluation on three distinct applications: turbulent flow, elastoplastic deformation, and global cosmic radiation dose estimation-CMCO consistently attains near-nominal empirical coverage, even in settings with strong spatial gradients and proxy-based sensing. This breakthrough offers a general-purpose, plug-and-play UQ solution for neural operators, unlocking real-time, trustworthy inference in digital twins, sensor fusion, and safety-critical monitoring. By bridging theory and deployment with minimal computational overhead, CMCO establishes a new foundation for scalable, generalizable, and uncertainty-aware scientific machine learning.

不确定性量化神经算子虚拟传感数字孪生

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