arXiv:2507.11920cs.ROcs.SY2025-07

根据风险动态分配预测资源,提升复杂环境下的规划安全与效率。

Heterogeneous Predictor-based Risk-Aware Planning with Conformal Prediction in Dense, Uncertain Environments

  • 按风险高低分配不同精度的预测器,节省计算资源。
  • 在密集不确定环境中实现98%以上无碰撞成功率,路径效率优于单一预测架构。
  • 适合自动驾驶、机器人导航等需实时安全决策的场景。

在密集、不确定的动态障碍物环境中进行实时规划极具挑战,因高精度预测所有代理既不必要又耗算力。本文提出异构预测驱动的风险感知规划框架H-PRAP,通过概率碰撞风险指数(P-CRI)实现预测资源的精准分配:高风险障碍由高精度但昂贵的预测器处理,低风险障碍则交由轻量预测器。P-CRI基于高斯代理与合规预测校准,为各障碍提供闭式、时域级碰撞风险指标。所选预测结果及其合规半径被嵌入机会约束型模型预测控制(MPC)问题,生成具有显式安全裕度的滚动时域策略。在预测算力预算下分析了安全性与效率的权衡:更多使用低精度预测虽降低漏检残余风险,却增大合规半径,影响轨迹效率并缩小MPC可行性区域。大量数值仿真表明,相较于单预测架构,H-PRAP在无碰撞成功率(>98%)与到达目标时间之间取得最佳平衡。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-time planning among many uncertain, dynamic obstacles is challenging because predicting every agent with high fidelity is both unnecessary and computationally expensive. We present Heterogeneous Predictor-based Risk-Aware Planning (H-PRAP), a framework that allocates prediction effort to where it matters. H-PRAP introduces the Probability-based Collision Risk Index (P-CRI), a closed-form, horizon-level collision index obtained by calibrating a Gaussian surrogate with conformal prediction. P-CRI drives a router that assigns high-risk obstacles to accurate but expensive predictors and low-risk obstacles to lightweight predictors, while preserving distribution-free coverage across heterogeneous predictors through conformal prediction. The selected predictions and their conformal radii are embedded in a chance-constrained model predictive control (MPC) problem, yielding receding-horizon policies with explicit safety margins. We analyze the safety-efficiency trade-off under prediction compute budget: more portion of low-fidelity predictions reduce residual risk from dropped obstacles, but in the same time induces larger conformal radii and degrades trajectory efficiency and shrinks MPC feasibility. Extensive numerical simulations in dense, uncertain environments validate that H-PRAP attains best balance between trajectory success rate (i.e., no collisions) and the time to reach the goal (i.e., trajectory efficiency) compared to single prediction architectures.

风险规划合规预测自动驾驶

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