arXiv:2507.12083cs.CVcs.RO2025-07ICCV被引 15

用奖励启发式推理交通参与者意图,提升轨迹预测准确性与可信度。

Foresight in Motion: Reinforcing Trajectory Prediction with Reward Heuristics

  • 先推理意图再预测轨迹,基于逆强化学习生成可解释的奖励分布。
  • 在Argoverse和nuScenes上显著提升预测置信度,性能媲美顶尖方法。
  • 适合关注自动驾驶行为建模与高置信度预测的科研与工程人员。

道路交通参与者运动预测对自动驾驶系统的安全性至关重要。不同于现有数据驱动方法直接预测轨迹,本文从规划视角重新思考该任务,提出“先推理、后预测”的策略,将行为意图作为轨迹预测的空间引导。为此,我们设计了一种基于新型查询中心逆强化学习(IRL)的可解释、奖励驱动意图推理器。首先将交通参与者与场景元素编码为统一向量表示,通过查询中心范式聚合上下文特征,从而基于IRL推导出目标代理在给定场景中的奖励分布——一种紧凑且信息丰富的行为表征。在此奖励启发下,通过策略回放推理多种合理意图,为后续轨迹生成提供关键先验。最后,采用融合双向选择性状态空间模型的分层DETR式解码器,生成精确未来轨迹及其对应概率。在大规模Argoverse与nuScenes数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法显著提升了轨迹预测置信度,性能达到当前最优水平。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Motion forecasting for on-road traffic agents presents both a significant challenge and a critical necessity for ensuring safety in autonomous driving systems. In contrast to most existing data-driven approaches that directly predict future trajectories, we rethink this task from a planning perspective, advocating a "First Reasoning, Then Forecasting" strategy that explicitly incorporates behavior intentions as spatial guidance for trajectory prediction. To achieve this, we introduce an interpretable, reward-driven intention reasoner grounded in a novel query-centric Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) scheme. Our method first encodes traffic agents and scene elements into a unified vectorized representation, then aggregates contextual features through a query-centric paradigm. This enables the derivation of a reward distribution, a compact yet informative representation of the target agent's behavior within the given scene context via IRL. Guided by this reward heuristic, we perform policy rollouts to reason about multiple plausible intentions, providing valuable priors for subsequent trajectory generation. Finally, we develop a hierarchical DETR-like decoder integrated with bidirectional selective state space models to produce accurate future trajectories along with their associated probabilities. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Argoverse and nuScenes motion forecasting datasets demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances trajectory prediction confidence, achieving highly competitive performance relative to state-of-the-art methods.

轨迹预测意图推理强化学习自动驾驶

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