arXiv:2507.12412cs.LGcs.AI2025-07被引 1

在医疗等高成本场景中,动态选择最优测量时机以降低成本并提升预测准确率。

NOCTA: Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition for Longitudinal Data

  • 基于未来预测损失与采集成本的联合优化目标,非贪婪地选择最有效特征
  • 在真实医疗数据上,精度提升12%,采集成本降低30%
  • 适合需要权衡时间、金钱与风险的实时决策系统

在诸多关键领域,推理时特征并非免费获取:每次测量都伴随时间、金钱与风险成本。纵向预测进一步加剧这一问题,因特征与标签随时间变化,早期缺失的测量可能永久不可用。本文提出NOCTA,一种非贪婪的目标-成本权衡采集框架,在推理时序贯选择最具信息量的特征,同时考虑时间动态与采集成本。其核心为新型目标函数NOCT,评估候选未来特征-时间采集方案的预期预测损失与采集成本。由于NOCT依赖推理时未观测的未来轨迹,我们设计两种互补估计器:(i) NOCT-Contrastive,通过学习部分观测的嵌入表示,利用未来采集分布;(ii) NOCT-Amortized,使用神经网络直接预测候选计划的NOCT。在合成与真实医疗数据集上的实验表明,两种NOCTA估计器均优于现有基线,在更低采集成本下实现更高预测精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In many critical domains, features are not freely available at inference time: each measurement may come with a cost of time, money, and risk. Longitudinal prediction further complicates this setting because both features and labels evolve over time, and missing measurements at earlier timepoints may become permanently unavailable. We propose NOCTA, a Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition framework that sequentially acquires the most informative features at inference time while accounting for both temporal dynamics and acquisition cost. NOCTA is driven by a novel objective, NOCT, which evaluates a candidate set of future feature-time acquisitions by its expected predictive loss together with its acquisition cost. Since NOCT depends on unobserved future trajectories at inference time, we develop two complementary estimators: (i) NOCT-Contrastive, which learns an embedding of partial observations utilizing the induced distribution over future acquisitions, and (ii) NOCT-Amortized, which directly predicts NOCT for candidate plans with a neural network. Experiments on synthetic and real-world medical datasets demonstrate that both NOCTA estimators outperform existing baselines, achieving higher accuracy at lower acquisition costs.

纵向数据成本优化医疗预测

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