arXiv:2507.14182cs.LGcs.AI2025-07

用对比学习建模牛市熊市行为,提升市场趋势预测能力

From Bias to Behavior: Learning Bull-Bear Market Dynamics with Contrastive Modeling

  • 构建统一框架联合建模价格序列与外部信息,生成牛熊对冲表征
  • 在真实数据上实现更优趋势预测,捕捉投资者行为动态变化
  • 适合关注市场心理与行为金融的量化研究者

金融市场受历史价格轨迹和外部叙事(如新闻、政策解读、社交媒体情绪)共同影响,数据异质性与投资者认知差异带来偏见,使市场动态建模复杂化。本文首次探索投资者驱动下牛市与熊市状态的潜在机制。基于真实金融数据的实证分析揭示了偏见变化与行为适应之间的动态关系,提升了在演化市场中的趋势预测能力。为此提出B4模型:一个将时间价格序列与外部上下文信号嵌入共享潜在空间的统一框架,其中自然涌现牛熊对立力量,构成偏见表征基础。通过惯性配对模块保留时间连续性,双竞争机制对比多头与空头表征以捕捉行为分化。实验表明,B4不仅显著优于现有方法,在真实数据集上实现更精准的趋势预测,还提供了偏见、行为与市场动态相互作用的可解释洞见。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial markets exhibit highly dynamic and complex behaviors shaped by both historical price trajectories and exogenous narratives, such as news, policy interpretations, and social media sentiment. The heterogeneity in these data and the diverse insight of investors introduce biases that complicate the modeling of market dynamics. Unlike prior work, this paper explores the potential of bull and bear regimes in investor-driven market dynamics. Through empirical analysis on real-world financial datasets, we uncover a dynamic relationship between bias variation and behavioral adaptation, which enhances trend prediction under evolving market conditions. To model this mechanism, we propose the Bias to Behavior from Bull-Bear Dynamics model (B4), a unified framework that jointly embeds temporal price sequences and external contextual signals into a shared latent space where opposing bull and bear forces naturally emerge, forming the foundation for bias representation. Within this space, an inertial pairing module pairs temporally adjacent samples to preserve momentum, while the dual competition mechanism contrasts bullish and bearish embeddings to capture behavioral divergence. Together, these components allow B4 to model bias-driven asymmetry, behavioral inertia, and market heterogeneity. Experimental results on real-world financial datasets demonstrate that our model not only achieves superior performance in predicting market trends but also provides interpretable insights into the interplay of biases, investor behaviors, and market dynamics.

行为金融市场预测对比学习

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