融合时空熵与量化神经网络,实现工业系统长期故障预测。
Boosted Enhanced Quantile Regression Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy for Complex System Prognostics
- 用时空排列熵提取多尺度传感器特征
- 168小时预测准确率达81.17%,优于多种基线模型
- 适合需要不确定性分析的复杂系统健康监测
本文提出一种集成化预测框架,结合时空排列熵(STPE)、提升型增强分位数回归神经网络(B-EQRNNs)、门控时间注意力、脉冲神经网络(SNN)精炼阶段和时间融合变压器(TFT)分类器。针对分布式工业电子系统中的长时程故障预测问题,单传感器或点估计模型易遗漏弱空间传播退化信号且缺乏不确定性信息。该方法将70通道传感器流转化为多尺度STPE描述符,学习条件分位数表示与注意力加权的时间上下文,最终完成正常/异常分类。在包含九个系统的工业传感器数据集上评估,预测时序为48、90和168小时。对比包括基于树的LightGBM基线及同预处理协议下的LSTM、Autoformer、TCN等现代序列模型。完整流程在168小时预测中达到81.17%准确率,通过组件消融、计算成本分析和明确可复现协议验证。贡献在于验证了一种面向不确定性感知的时空预测混合架构,而非新学习理论。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper presents an integrative prognostic framework that combines Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy (STPE), Boosted Enhanced Quantile Regression Neural Networks (B-EQRNNs), Gated Temporal Attention, a Spiking Neural Network (SNN) refinement stage, and a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) classifier. The motivation is long-horizon fault prediction in distributed industrial electronic systems, where single-sensor or point-estimate models can miss weak spatially propagating degradation signatures and provide limited uncertainty information. The proposed pipeline first converts 70-channel sensor streams into multiscale STPE descriptors, then learns conditional quantile representations and attention-weighted temporal context before final Normal/Abnormal classification. Evaluation is reported on a nine-system industrial electronic-sensor dataset with 48-, 90-, and 168-hour prediction horizons. The comparison includes a tree-based LightGBM baseline and modern sequence baselines available under the same preprocessing protocol, including LSTM, Autoformer, and TCN models. The full pipeline reaches 81.17% accuracy at the 168-hour horizon and is evaluated with component ablations, computational-cost analysis, and an explicit reproducibility protocol. The contribution is therefore framed as a validated hybrid architecture for uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal prognostics rather than as a new standalone learning theory.
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