通过规则挖掘分析2022年美国选举信任度，发现投票便利性显著提升信任度。
Mining Voter Behaviour and Confidence: A Rule-Based Analysis of the 2022 U.S. Elections
- 用阿普里奥算法挖掘选民数据，识别投票困难与信任之间的关联规则。
- 易达投票站且信心中等者，对选举结果信任度提升6.12倍，注册无问题概率更高。
- 少数族裔中98.16%易抵达投票站者注册顺利，高计票信心者更倾向支持民主党。
本研究利用规则挖掘方法，基于2022年美国选举表现调查（SPAE）数据，探究选民信任与其选举体验的关系。采用阿普里奥算法，设置支持度≥3%、置信度≥60%、提升度>1.5的参数，发现人口属性与投票挑战（如注册障碍、可及性问题、排队时间）存在强关联。例如，认为投票站“非常容易到达”且信心中等的受访者，其对本县选举结果的信任度提升6.12倍，且几乎不会遇到注册问题。进一步将支持度降至2%，聚焦少数族裔群体，发现98.16%的非裔选民若能轻松抵达投票站，则注册过程也极为顺畅；同时，对计票过程有高信心者，几乎两倍于他人自认民主党支持者。结果表明，改善投票可及性并提供针对性支持，对增强边缘群体对选举制度的信任至关重要。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study explores the relationship between voter trust and their experiences during elections by applying a rule-based data mining technique to the 2022 Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE). Using the Apriori algorithm and setting parameters to capture meaningful associations (support >= 3%, confidence >= 60%, and lift > 1.5), the analysis revealed a strong connection between demographic attributes and voting-related challenges, such as registration hurdles, accessibility issues, and queue times. For instance, respondents who indicated that accessing polling stations was "very easy" and who reported moderate confidence were found to be over six times more likely (lift = 6.12) to trust their county's election outcome and experience no registration issues. A further analysis, which adjusted the support threshold to 2%, specifically examined patterns among minority voters. It revealed that 98.16 percent of Black voters who reported easy access to polling locations also had smooth registration experiences. Additionally, those who had high confidence in the vote-counting process were almost two times as likely to identify as Democratic Party supporters. These findings point to the important role that enhancing voting access and offering targeted support can play in building trust in the electoral system, particularly among marginalized communities.
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