用合作者网络预测教授职位去向,准确率提升10%。
Forecasting Faculty Placement from Patterns in Co-authorship Networks
- 以合作者网络为输入,结合传统指标进行职位预测。
- 在顶尖(前10)院校的预测准确率提升最明显,最高达10%。
- 揭示了学术社交网络对招聘的影响,适合关注公平招聘的研究者。
教授招聘塑造了学术界思想、资源与机会的流动,不仅影响个人职业发展,也决定机构声望与科学进步的整体格局。尽管传统研究发现招聘与博士培养机构声望、发表记录等属性强相关,但很少评估这些关联是否能推广至个体层面的招聘结果,尤其是原始样本之外的未来候选人。本文将教授职位分配视为个体级预测任务,数据包括时间维度的合作者网络及博士机构声望、文献计量特征等传统属性。结果显示,引入合作者网络可使预测准确率最高提升10%,尤其在顶尖(前10)高校的预测中收益最大。结果表明,社交网络、专业背书与隐性推荐在招聘中扮演重要角色,超越传统的学术产出与机构声誉。通过提出预测范式并验证合作者网络的价值,本研究为理解学术体系中的结构性偏见提供了新视角,有助于推动招聘透明化、公平化与包容性的干预措施。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Faculty hiring shapes the flow of ideas, resources, and opportunities in academia, influencing not only individual career trajectories but also broader patterns of institutional prestige and scientific progress. While traditional studies have found strong correlations between faculty hiring and attributes such as doctoral department prestige and publication record, they rarely assess whether these associations generalize to individual hiring outcomes, particularly for future candidates outside the original sample. Here, we consider faculty placement as an individual-level prediction task. Our data consist of temporal co-authorship networks with conventional attributes such as doctoral department prestige and bibliometric features. We observe that using the co-authorship network significantly improves predictive accuracy by up to 10% over traditional indicators alone, with the largest gains observed for placements at the most elite (top-10) departments. Our results underscore the role that social networks, professional endorsements, and implicit advocacy play in faculty hiring beyond traditional measures of scholarly productivity and institutional prestige. By introducing a predictive framing of faculty placement and establishing the benefit of considering co-authorship networks, this work provides a new lens for understanding structural biases in academia that could inform targeted interventions aimed at increasing transparency, fairness, and equity in academic hiring practices.
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