arXiv:2507.14760eess.IVcs.AI2025-07

提升医学影像重建的不确定性估计精度,减少虚假预测。

QUTCC: Quantile Uncertainty Training and Conformal Calibration for Imaging Inverse Problems

  • 联合量化回归与空间自适应校准,学习图像内局部不确定性。
  • 在相同覆盖水平下,不确定区间比传统方法更紧致。
  • 适合需要可信预测的医疗成像与科学计算场景。

深度学习在科学与医学成像中前景广阔,但模型错误和幻觉(与现实不符的预测)难以定位,可能带来严重后果。不确定性估计技术如分位数预测可提供统计有效的误差范围。然而,现有分位数预测方法未针对高维图像问题设计,且校准时忽略图像内部空间相关性,导致不确定性区间过大。本文提出QUTCC方法:采用带分位数嵌入的U-Net架构,在训练中学习完整的条件分位数分布,并在测试时利用该非线性函数实现空间自适应的分位数校准。该方法可在像素边缘覆盖保证下高效估计不确定性区间,且无需预设分布假设即可输出像素级条件概率密度。我们在去噪、加速磁共振成像和定量相位显微镜任务上评估,结果表明:在相同覆盖水平下,本方法始终产生更紧凑的不确定性区间,能合理建模不同任务的条件分布,部分高不确定性区域还能帮助识别模型幻觉。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While deep learning offers tremendous promise for scientific and medical imaging, any failures and hallucinations (predictions that do not coincide with reality) are hard to pinpoint and can have serious downstream consequences. Uncertainty estimation techniques, such as conformal prediction, can help by predicting statistically valid error bars for a model's prediction. However, popular conformal prediction methods were not designed for high-dimensional image-valued problems and do not take into account spatial correlations within an image during conformal calibration, resulting in larger-than-necessary uncertainty intervals. We propose a practical simultaneous quantile regression method that enables non-linear, spatially-adaptive scaling during conformal calibration. Our method, QUTCC uses a U-Net architecture with a quantile embedding to learn a full conditional quantile distribution during training, and then leverages this non-linear, learned function for spatially-adaptive conformal calibration. At test time, our method can efficiently estimate uncertainty intervals with pixel-marginal coverage guarantees. In addition, QUTCC can also predict pixel-wise conditional probability density estimates without any built-in distributional assumptions. We evaluate our method on several denoising problems, accelerated magnetic resonance imaging, and quantitative phase microscopy. Our method consistently produces tighter uncertainty intervals than prior conformal methods at the same coverage level, can predict plausible conditional distributions for different tasks, and in some cases, high-uncertainty regions can help us locate hallucinations in a model's prediction.

不确定性估计医学成像分位数回归空间自适应

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