用物理定律提升洪水预测,让神经网络既快又真实。
Integrating Newton's Laws with deep learning for enhanced physics-informed compound flood modelling
- 将牛顿定律融入神经网络,同时约束质量与动量守恒。
- 在六次风暴事件中,水位和流速预测误差显著降低。
- 适合需要高精度实时洪水预警的沿海应急管理部门。
沿海社区正面临复合型洪灾威胁,当风暴潮、高潮、暴雨和河流流量等多重因素同时或相继发生时,其破坏力远超单一因素。传统水动力模型虽准确但计算成本高,难以用于实时预测或风险评估;而机器学习方法虽快,却常因缺乏物理一致性,在极端情况下产生不合理结果。本文提出ALPINE(All-in-one Physics Informed Neural Emulator),一种融合完整浅水方程的物理信息神经网络(PINN)框架,首次同步强制执行质量守恒及两个动量方程,确保全程符合牛顿定律。该模型采用卷积编码器-解码器结构结合ConvLSTM处理时间序列,通过综合损失函数平衡数据拟合与物理残差。基于六次历史风暴事件(四次训练,一次验证,一次独立测试),结果表明:相比基线神经网络,ALPINE在水表面高程和速度分量的域平均预测误差显著下降,且在强风暴峰值期物理约束作用最为关键。该方法实现了物理一致的快速模拟,可支持复合洪水预报与大规模风险分析,保障海岸应急决策的可靠性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Coastal communities increasingly face compound floods, where multiple drivers like storm surge, high tide, heavy rainfall, and river discharge occur together or in sequence to produce impacts far greater than any single driver alone. Traditional hydrodynamic models can provide accurate physics-based simulations but require substantial computational resources for real-time applications or risk assessments, while machine learning alternatives often sacrifice physical consistency for speed, producing unrealistic predictions during extreme events. This study addresses these challenges by developing ALPINE (All-in-one Physics Informed Neural Emulator), a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework to enforce complete shallow water dynamics in compound flood modeling. Unlike previous approaches that implement partial constraints, our framework simultaneously enforces mass conservation and both momentum equations, ensuring full adherence to Newton's laws throughout the prediction process. The model integrates a convolutional encoder-decoder architecture with ConvLSTM temporal processing, trained using a composite loss function that balances data fidelity with physics-based residuals. Using six historical storm events (four for training, one for validation, and one held-out for unseen testing), we observe substantial improvements over baseline neural networks. ALPINE reduces domain-averaged prediction errors and improves model skill metrics for water surface elevation and velocity components. Physics-informed constraints prove most valuable during peak storm intensity, when multiple flood drivers interact and reliable predictions matter most. This approach yields a physically consistent emulator capable of supporting compound-flood forecasting and large-scale risk analyses while preserving physical realism essential for coastal emergency management.
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