提升电力价格预测的不确定性量化精度,更可靠地评估风险。
Isotonic Quantile Regression Averaging for uncertainty quantification of electricity price forecasts
- 用保序约束优化分位数回归平均,提升预测可靠性。
- 在德国日前电力市场测试中,覆盖率达95%以上且区间更紧凑。
- 无需调参,自动选择重要变量,适合电力市场决策者使用。
在电力等高波动领域,量化预测模型的不确定性对降低数据驱动决策风险至关重要。机器学习可提供高精度电价预测,但常缺乏不确定性估计,限制了风险管理能力。本文提出一种新方法——保序分位数回归平均(iQRA),在已有分位数回归平均(QRA)框架基础上引入单调性约束,以提升预测准确性、可靠性及计算效率。在德国日前电力市场的广泛实验中,iQRA在可靠性与尖锐性方面均优于现有先进后处理方法,能生成多置信水平下校准良好的预测区间,尤其显著优于基于覆盖率的符合预测方法。此外,保序正则化降低了分位数回归问题复杂度,实现无超参数的变量选择。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Quantifying the uncertainty of forecasting models is essential to assess and mitigate the risks associated with data-driven decisions, especially in volatile domains such as electricity markets. Machine learning methods can provide highly accurate electricity price forecasts, critical for informing the decisions of market participants. However, these models often lack uncertainty estimates, which limits the ability of decision makers to avoid unnecessary risks. In this paper, we propose a novel method for generating probabilistic forecasts from ensembles of point forecasts, called Isotonic Quantile Regression Averaging (iQRA). Building on the established framework of Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA), we introduce stochastic order constraints to improve forecast accuracy, reliability, and computational costs. In an extensive forecasting study of the German day-ahead electricity market, we show that iQRA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art postprocessing methods in terms of both reliability and sharpness. It produces well-calibrated prediction intervals across multiple confidence levels, providing superior reliability to all benchmark methods, particularly coverage-based conformal prediction. In addition, isotonic regularization decreases the complexity of the quantile regression problem and offers a hyperparameter-free approach to variable selection.
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