arXiv:2507.17189cs.LG2025-07

提出解耦双阶段模型,提升复杂气象系统多变量预测精度。

Met$^2$Net: A Decoupled Two-Stage Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Model for Complex Meteorological Systems

  • 分变量独立编码解码,分阶段训练避免表示不一致
  • 近地面气温与湿度预测误差降低28.82%和23.39%
  • 适合需要高精度多变量气象预报的研究与应用

全球气候变化导致极端天气事件频发,亟需精准天气预测。尽管端到端深度学习方法取得进展,但在多变量融合中仍存在表示不一致问题,难以有效捕捉变量间依赖关系。现有双阶段多模态方法因两阶段训练任务不一致,效果受限。为此,本文提出隐式双阶段训练方法:第一阶段冻结翻译器,编码器与解码器学习共享潜在空间;第二阶段冻结编码器与解码器,翻译器捕获变量间交互关系。引入潜在空间中的自注意力机制融合多变量信息,进一步提升性能。实验表明,该方法在近地面空气温度和相对湿度预测上分别将均方误差降低28.82%和23.39%,达到当前最优水平。源代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the \textbf{end-to-end methods}, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of \textit{representation inconsistency} in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a \textbf{two-stage training approach} from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

气象预测时空建模多变量融合深度学习

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