用大模型模拟不同利益相关者视角，帮研究者理解政策落地难的根源。
Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models
- 用大模型代理代表各方利益者，用户可切换角色体验立场差异。
- 实验显示，即使推荐科学政策，执行仍因利益冲突而偏差。
- 适合跨学科研究者探索政策制定中的认知与政治困境。
理解社会-生态系统需要多元利益相关者视角，但这些视角常难以获取。为此，我们提出HoPeS（人类导向视角转换）建模框架，利用大语言模型（LLMs）驱动的智能体代表不同利益相关方，用户可扮演这些角色以体验视角差异。仿真协议作为“支架”，支持用户在多视角间反思、切换与整合。原型系统在制度动态与土地利用变化场景中验证了该框架，支持叙事驱动与数值实验。在示例实验中，用户先后扮演系统观察者与研究者角色——后者分析嵌入的土地利用模型数据，为其他代表机构的LLM代理提供证据支持的政策建议。尽管用户努力提出技术上合理的政策，但政策建议与实施之间仍存在差距，反映出研究者与决策者之间的现实错位。用户反思中表现出作为研究者的挫败感与失望，尤其因需在保持政治中立的同时争取影响力。尽管如此，用户仍高度愿意尝试不同的叙事策略，表明系统在探索多元视角方面的潜力。后续系统与协议优化有望推动社会-生态模拟中的新型跨学科协作。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives, which are often hard to access. To enable alternative, simulation-based exploration of different stakeholder perspectives, we develop the HoPeS (Human-Oriented Perspective Shifting) modelling framework. HoPeS employs agents powered by large language models (LLMs) to represent various stakeholders; users can step into the agent roles to experience perspectival differences. A simulation protocol serves as a "scaffold" to streamline multiple perspective-taking simulations, supporting users in reflecting on, transitioning between, and integrating across perspectives. A prototype system is developed to demonstrate HoPeS in the context of institutional dynamics and land use change, enabling both narrative-driven and numerical experiments. In an illustrative experiment, a user successively adopts the perspectives of a system observer and a researcher - a role that analyses data from the embedded land use model to inform evidence-based decision-making for other LLM agents representing various institutions. Despite the user's effort to recommend technically sound policies, discrepancies persist between the policy recommendation and implementation due to stakeholders' competing advocacies, mirroring real-world misalignment between researcher and policymaker perspectives. The user's reflection highlights the subjective feelings of frustration and disappointment as a researcher, especially due to the challenge of maintaining political neutrality while attempting to gain political influence. Despite this, the user exhibits high motivation to experiment with alternative narrative framing strategies, suggesting the system's potential in exploring different perspectives. Further system and protocol refinement are likely to enable new forms of interdisciplinary collaboration in socio-ecological simulations.
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