用深度学习实现城市级人流精准预测,支持跨城推广。
UrbanPulse: A Cross-City Deep Learning Framework for Ultra-Fine-Grained Population Transfer Prediction
- 将每个兴趣点当节点,用图卷积与Transformer建模时空关系。
- 在加州三城数据上预测精度超现有方法,处理超1亿条轨迹。
- 三阶段迁移学习提升跨城泛化能力,适合智慧城市规划者使用。
精准的人口流动预测对城市规划、交通管理和公共健康至关重要。现有方法存在关键局限:传统模型依赖静态空间假设,深度学习模型跨城市泛化能力差,大语言模型计算成本高且难以捕捉空间结构。许多方法通过聚类兴趣点或限制覆盖范围牺牲分辨率,影响全域分析应用。我们提出UrbanPulse,一种可扩展的深度学习框架,将每个兴趣点视为独立节点,实现城市级、超细粒度的起止点(OD)流量预测。该框架结合时序图卷积编码器与Transformer解码器,建模多尺度时空依赖。为确保跨城市场景的鲁棒泛化,采用三阶段迁移学习策略:大规模城市图预训练、冷启动适应与强化学习微调。在加州三个都市区超过1.03亿条清洗后的GPS记录上评估,UrbanPulse达到当前最优精度与可扩展性。通过高效迁移学习,迈出高分辨率AI城市预测实际部署的关键一步。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate population flow prediction is essential for urban planning, transportation management, and public health. Yet existing methods face key limitations: traditional models rely on static spatial assumptions, deep learning models struggle with cross-city generalization, and Large Language Models (LLMs) incur high computational costs while failing to capture spatial structure. Moreover, many approaches sacrifice resolution by clustering Points of Interest (POIs) or restricting coverage to subregions, limiting their utility for city-wide analytics. We introduce UrbanPulse, a scalable deep learning framework that delivers ultra-fine-grained, city-wide OD flow predictions by treating each POI as an individual node. It combines a temporal graph convolutional encoder with a transformer-based decoder to model multi-scale spatiotemporal dependencies. To ensure robust generalization across urban contexts, UrbanPulse employs a three-stage transfer learning strategy: pretraining on large-scale urban graphs, cold-start adaptation, and reinforcement learning fine-tuning.Evaluated on over 103 million cleaned GPS records from three metropolitan areas in California, UrbanPulse achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and scalability. Through efficient transfer learning, UrbanPulse takes a key step toward making high-resolution, AI-powered urban forecasting deployable in practice across diverse cities.
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