arXiv:2507.18378physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-07被引 4

对比两种气象模型,帮机构选更适合的预报系统。

A comparison of stretched-grid and limited-area modelling for data-driven regional weather forecasting

  • 用相同架构比较局部域和拉伸网格模型设计差异。
  • 两者预测精度相当,但拉伸网格更擅长时间泛化。
  • 数据难获取时用边界强迫的局部域模型更优。

基于图神经网络的区域机器学习天气预测(MLWP)模型近年来表现出色,以更低计算成本超越数值天气预报模型。本研究对比了两种高分辨率区域预报方法:局部域模型(LAM)依赖外部全球模型提供侧边界条件,而拉伸网格模型(SGM)则包含低分辨率全球域。通过Anemoi框架,在近乎相同的训练设置下构建两类模型并使用全球与区域再分析数据进行训练。多组推理实验表明,两者在欧洲区域的确定性预报中均表现良好且性能相近。具体差异体现在应用场景上:LAM能有效利用高质量边界强迫,在全球数据难以获取时更具优势;而SGM完全自洽,便于业务化部署,可使用更多训练数据,并在时间泛化能力上显著优于LAM。本研究为气象机构选择适合自身需求的建模路径提供了参考。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Regional machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models based on graph neural networks have recently demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy, outperforming numerical weather prediction models at lower computational costs. In particular, limited-area model (LAM) and stretched-grid model (SGM) approaches have emerged for generating high-resolution regional forecasts, based on initial conditions from a regional (re)analysis. While LAM uses lateral boundaries from an external global model, SGM incorporates a global domain at lower resolution. This study aims to understand how the differences in model design impact relative performance and potential applications. Specifically, the strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches are identified for generating deterministic regional forecasts over Europe. Using the Anemoi framework, models of both types are built by minimally adapting a shared architecture and trained using global and regional reanalyses in a near-identical setup. Several inference experiments have been conducted to explore their relative performance and highlight key differences. Results show that both LAM and SGM are competitive deterministic MLWP models with generally accurate and comparable forecasting performance over the regional domain. Various differences were identified in the performance of the models across applications. LAM is able to successfully exploit high-quality boundary forcings to make predictions within the regional domain and is suitable in contexts where global data is difficult to acquire. SGM is fully self-contained for easier operationalisation, can take advantage of more training data and significantly surpasses LAM in terms of (temporal) generalisability. Our paper can serve as a starting point for meteorological institutes to guide their choice between LAM and SGM in developing an operational data-driven forecasting system.

气象预测图神经网络机器学习

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