arXiv:2507.18498cs.CV2025-07中稿 · IROS 2025, Project…被引 7

提出基于车辆自身状态动态融合地图不确定性的新方法,提升无图轨迹预测性能。

Delving into Mapping Uncertainty for Mapless Trajectory Prediction

  • 根据自车未来运动状态自适应融合地图不确定性
  • 在nuScenes数据集上提升23.6%预测准确率
  • 适合关注自动驾驶感知-决策协同的开发者

自动驾驶正向无图方案演进,通过传感器数据实时生成高精地图,降低标注与维护成本。然而在线生成地图的可靠性仍存疑虑。尽管将地图不确定性引入轨迹预测有潜力提升性能,但现有方法缺乏对不确定性有益场景的深入理解。本文分析发现,地图不确定性在特定驾驶场景中效果显著,关键影响因素为行驶主体的运动状态。基于此,提出轻量级自监督的本体情景门控机制,依据自车未来运动预测动态整合地图不确定性,增强在线建图与轨迹预测的协同能力,同时提供可解释性。此外,设计基于协方差的地图不确定性表征,更贴合地图几何结构,进一步提升预测精度。大量消融实验验证有效性,在真实世界nuScenes数据集上相比当前最优方法提升达23.6%。代码、数据与模型已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent advances in autonomous driving are moving towards mapless approaches, where High-Definition (HD) maps are generated online directly from sensor data, reducing the need for expensive labeling and maintenance. However, the reliability of these online-generated maps remains uncertain. While incorporating map uncertainty into downstream trajectory prediction tasks has shown potential for performance improvements, current strategies provide limited insights into the specific scenarios where this uncertainty is beneficial. In this work, we first analyze the driving scenarios in which mapping uncertainty has the greatest positive impact on trajectory prediction and identify a critical, previously overlooked factor: the agent's kinematic state. Building on these insights, we propose a novel Proprioceptive Scenario Gating that adaptively integrates map uncertainty into trajectory prediction based on forecasts of the ego vehicle's future kinematics. This lightweight, self-supervised approach enhances the synergy between online mapping and trajectory prediction, providing interpretability around where uncertainty is advantageous and outperforming previous integration methods. Additionally, we introduce a Covariance-based Map Uncertainty approach that better aligns with map geometry, further improving trajectory prediction. Extensive ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of our approach, achieving up to 23.6% improvement in mapless trajectory prediction performance over the state-of-the-art method using the real-world nuScenes driving dataset. Our code, data, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Ethan-Zheng136/Map-Uncertainty-for-Trajectory-Prediction.

自动驾驶轨迹预测不确定性建模无图导航

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