arXiv:2507.19515cs.LGcs.CY2025-07被引 2

深度学习模型显著优于传统方法,能更准确预测流感疫情走势。

A Comparative Analysis of Traditional and Deep Learning Time Series Architectures for Influenza A Infectious Disease Forecasting

  • 对比六种深度模型与传统ARIMA、ETS,用2009-2023年数据验证
  • Transformer模型测试均方误差0.0433±0.0020,平均绝对误差0.1126±0.0016最优
  • 结果支持将先进模型用于公共卫生预警系统,适合疫病预测研究者

流感A每年导致29万至65万例呼吸道死亡,尽管这一数字因卫生条件改善、医疗进步和疫苗接种有所下降。本研究对传统模型(ARIMA、ETS)与六种深度学习架构(Simple RNN、LSTM、GRU、BiLSTM、BiGRU、Transformer)在流感A疫情预测中的表现进行了对比分析。基于2009年1月至2023年12月的历史数据,结果显示所有深度学习模型均显著优于传统模型,其中最先进的Transformer模型在测试集上的平均均方误差(MSE)为0.0433±0.0020,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.1126±0.0016,有效捕捉了流感数据的时间复杂性。研究证实,前沿深度学习方法可提升传染病预测能力,推动公共卫生预报与干预策略发展。未来应探索如何将这些模型整合进实时疫情预警与监测系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Influenza A is responsible for 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths a year, though this estimate is an improvement from years past due to improvements in sanitation, healthcare practices, and vaccination programs. In this study, we perform a comparative analysis of traditional and deep learning models to predict Influenza A outbreaks. Using historical data from January 2009 to December 2023, we compared the performance of traditional ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing(ETS) models with six distinct deep learning architectures: Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU, and Transformer. The results reveal a clear superiority of all the deep learning models, especially the state-of-the-art Transformer with respective average testing MSE and MAE of 0.0433 \pm 0.0020 and 0.1126 \pm 0.0016 for capturing the temporal complexities associated with Influenza A data, outperforming well known traditional baseline ARIMA and ETS models. These findings of this study provide evidence that state-of-the-art deep learning architectures can enhance predictive modeling for infectious diseases and indicate a more general trend toward using deep learning methods to enhance public health forecasting and intervention planning strategies. Future work should focus on how these models can be incorporated into real-time forecasting and preparedness systems at an epidemic level, and integrated into existing surveillance systems.

流感预测深度学习时间序列

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