用气象数据预测阿曼绿氢设施维护风险,助力拍卖决策。
Machine Learning Risk Intelligence for Green Hydrogen Investment: Insights for Duqm R3 Auction
- 基于公开气象数据构建维护压力指数MPI,预测设施风险。
- 首次在无运营数据情况下实现绿氢基建维护需求预判。
- 适合政策制定者、投资方用于评估沙漠地区绿氢项目风险。
随着绿氢成为全球脱碳关键,阿曼通过国家拍卖和国际合作积极布局。继前两轮成功后,该国在杜克姆地区启动第三轮拍卖(R3)。尽管该区域地理条件相对均一,但仍受环境波动影响,威胁生产效率。目前全球绿氢项目尚无充足运营数据:沙特NEOM项目预计2026年投产,阿曼ACME杜克姆项目则计划2028年。这种大规模沙漠环境下缺乏历史运维与性能数据,导致基础设施规划与拍卖决策面临重大知识缺口。为此,本文提出一种人工智能决策支持系统,利用公开气象数据构建预测性维护压力指数(MPI),以量化设备维护压力。该工具可作为环境条件的可靠代理,弥补历史数据缺失,并支持时间维度上的绩效基准比对,增强监管前瞻性和运营决策能力,使拍卖评估可纳入动态风险考量。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As green hydrogen emerges as a major component of global decarbonisation, Oman has positioned itself strategically through national auctions and international partnerships. Following two successful green hydrogen project rounds, the country launched its third auction (R3) in the Duqm region. While this area exhibits relative geospatial homogeneity, it is still vulnerable to environmental fluctuations that pose inherent risks to productivity. Despite growing global investment in green hydrogen, operational data remains scarce, with major projects like Saudi Arabia's NEOM facility not expected to commence production until 2026, and Oman's ACME Duqm project scheduled for 2028. This absence of historical maintenance and performance data from large-scale hydrogen facilities in desert environments creates a major knowledge gap for accurate risk assessment for infrastructure planning and auction decisions. Given this data void, environmental conditions emerge as accessible and reliable proxy for predicting infrastructure maintenance pressures, because harsh desert conditions such as dust storms, extreme temperatures, and humidity fluctuations are well-documented drivers of equipment degradation in renewable energy systems. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an Artificial Intelligence decision support system that leverages publicly available meteorological data to develop a predictive Maintenance Pressure Index (MPI), which predicts risk levels and future maintenance demands on hydrogen infrastructure. This tool strengthens regulatory foresight and operational decision-making by enabling temporal benchmarking to assess and validate performance claims over time. It can be used to incorporate temporal risk intelligence into auction evaluation criteria despite the absence of historical operational benchmarks.
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