arXiv:2507.19648physics.soc-phcs.CY2025-07

揭示城市形态与出行方式的强关联,为可持续规划提供依据。

Decoding street network morphologies and their correlation to travel mode choice

  • 用密度、连通性等指标无监督分类九个美国大都市形态
  • 网状结构提升公交使用率0.49,减少汽车依赖0.41
  • 结果稳健(p<1e-19),适合城市规划与政策制定者

城市形态长期被认为影响人类移动行为,但跨大都市区的系统性分类仍有限。基于城市结构理论和无监督学习,我们利用密度、连通性和空间配置等结构指标,对九个美国大都市的建成环境进行系统分类。通过描述性统计、边际效应估计和事后检验,发现不同城市形态与出行模式显著相关:网状形态与更高的公交使用(边际效应=0.49)和更低的汽车依赖(-0.41)相关,而有机形态则导致汽车使用增加(0.44)、公交使用下降(-0.47)及步行出行减少(-0.30)。这些效应在统计上极为显著(p < 1e-19),表明城市空间格局在塑造交通选择中起根本作用。研究提供可复现的城市形态分类框架,拓展了比较城市研究的价值,建议将城市形态作为交通规划中的关键变量,并为可持续城市政策设计提供实证支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Urban morphology has long been recognized as a factor shaping human mobility, yet comparative and formal classifications of urban form across metropolitan areas remain limited. Building on theoretical principles of urban structure and advances in unsupervised learning, we systematically classified the built environment of nine U.S. metropolitan areas using structural indicators such as density, connectivity, and spatial configuration. The resulting morphological types were linked to mobility patterns through descriptive statistics, marginal effects estimation, and post hoc statistical testing. Here we show that distinct urban forms are systematically associated with different mobility behaviors, such as reticular morphologies being linked to significantly higher public transport use (marginal effect = 0.49) and reduced car dependence (-0.41), while organic forms are associated with increased car usage (0.44), and substantial declines in public transport (-0.47) and active mobility (-0.30). These effects are statistically robust (p < 1e-19), highlighting that the spatial configuration of urban areas plays a fundamental role in shaping transportation choices. Our findings extend previous work by offering a reproducible framework for classifying urban form and demonstrate the added value of morphological analysis in comparative urban research. These results suggest that urban form should be treated as a key variable in mobility planning and provide empirical support for incorporating spatial typologies into sustainable urban policy design.

城市形态出行选择交通规划数据分析

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