融合物理规则与学习模型,提升复杂路况下多轨迹预测的准确性和合理性。
PhysVarMix: Physics-Informed Variational Mixture Model for Multi-Modal Trajectory Prediction
- 用变分贝叶斯混合模型捕捉多种可能的未来行为路径。
- 引入边界条件和MPC平滑,使轨迹符合运动学规律。
- 结果更可解释且多样,适合自动驾驶决策系统使用。
精准预测未来行进轨迹是保障自动驾驶安全高效的关键,尤其在充满多种可能场景的复杂城市环境中。本文提出一种新颖的混合方法,将学习驱动与物理约束相结合,以应对轨迹预测中的多模态挑战。该方法采用变分贝叶斯混合模型,有效捕捉多种潜在未来行为,突破传统单峰假设。不同于以往主要依赖数据拟合的回归式方法,本框架通过分区域边界条件和基于模型预测控制(MPC)的平滑机制,融入物理真实性,确保预测轨迹不仅与数据一致,也符合运动学与动力学原理。此外,所提方法生成可解释且多样化的轨迹预测,有助于提升自动驾驶系统的下游决策与规划能力。我们在两个基准数据集上评估了该方法,表现优于现有技术。全面的消融实验验证了各组件的贡献及其协同作用。通过平衡数据驱动与物理约束,该方法为应对真实城市环境中的不确定性提供了鲁棒、可扩展的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of future agent trajectories is a critical challenge for ensuring safe and efficient autonomous navigation, particularly in complex urban environments characterized by multiple plausible future scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid approach that integrates learning-based with physics-based constraints to address the multi-modality inherent in trajectory prediction. Our method employs a variational Bayesian mixture model to effectively capture the diverse range of potential future behaviors, moving beyond traditional unimodal assumptions. Unlike prior approaches that predominantly treat trajectory prediction as a data-driven regression task, our framework incorporates physical realism through sector-specific boundary conditions and Model Predictive Control (MPC)-based smoothing. These constraints ensure that predicted trajectories are not only data-consistent but also physically plausible, adhering to kinematic and dynamic principles. Furthermore, our method produces interpretable and diverse trajectory predictions, enabling enhanced downstream decision-making and planning in autonomous driving systems. We evaluate our approach on two benchmark datasets, demonstrating superior performance compared to existing methods. Comprehensive ablation studies validate the contributions of each component and highlight their synergistic impact on prediction accuracy and reliability. By balancing data-driven insights with physics-informed constraints, our approach offers a robust and scalable solution for navigating the uncertainties of real-world urban environments.
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