用图注意力网络预测事故严重程度,提升救援效率与道路安全。
STARN-GAT: A Multi-Modal Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Network for Accident Severity Prediction
- 构建多模态时空图网络,融合道路拓扑、交通时序与环境信息。
- 在FARS数据集上严重事故召回率达81%,宏F1达85%。
- 模型可解释性强,适合交通管理与智能决策系统应用。
准确预测交通事故严重程度对提升道路安全、优化应急响应策略及设计更安全的交通基础设施至关重要。然而,现有方法难以有效建模空间、时间与上下文变量间的复杂关联。本文提出STARN-GAT,一种多模态时空图注意力网络,通过自适应图构建和模态感知注意力机制,整合道路网络拓扑、交通时序模式与环境背景信息。模型在美国车祸分析报告系统(FARS)数据集上取得85%的宏F1分数、0.91的ROC-AUC值和81%的严重事故召回率;在南亚地区的ARI-BUET数据集上也表现良好,宏F1为0.84,召回率为0.78,ROC-AUC为0.89。结果表明该模型能有效识别高风险事故,具备部署于实时安全关键交通管理系统的能力。其注意力机制增强了可解释性,有助于理解影响因素并建立对AI决策的信任。总体而言,STARN-GAT弥合了先进图神经网络技术与道路安全分析实际应用之间的差距。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of traffic accident severity is critical for improving road safety, optimizing emergency response strategies, and informing the design of safer transportation infrastructure. However, existing approaches often struggle to effectively model the intricate interdependencies among spatial, temporal, and contextual variables that govern accident outcomes. In this study, we introduce STARN-GAT, a Multi-Modal Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Network, which leverages adaptive graph construction and modality-aware attention mechanisms to capture these complex relationships. Unlike conventional methods, STARN-GAT integrates road network topology, temporal traffic patterns, and environmental context within a unified attention-based framework. The model is evaluated on the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset, achieving a Macro F1-score of 85 percent, ROC-AUC of 0.91, and recall of 81 percent for severe incidents. To ensure generalizability within the South Asian context, STARN-GAT is further validated on the ARI-BUET traffic accident dataset, where it attains a Macro F1-score of 0.84, recall of 0.78, and ROC-AUC of 0.89. These results demonstrate the model's effectiveness in identifying high-risk cases and its potential for deployment in real-time, safety-critical traffic management systems. Furthermore, the attention-based architecture enhances interpretability, offering insights into contributing factors and supporting trust in AI-assisted decision-making. Overall, STARN-GAT bridges the gap between advanced graph neural network techniques and practical applications in road safety analytics.
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