系统梳理社交网络恶意行为预测方法,构建五类任务框架。
Before the Outrage: Challenges and Advances in Predicting Online Antisocial Behavior
- 提出五类预测任务分类体系,涵盖早期发现到主动干预
- 分析49项研究发现数据稀缺与跨平台泛化是主要挑战
- 适合安全研究者、平台算法团队及政策制定者参考
社交媒体上的反社会行为(如仇恨言论、骚扰和网络挑衅)对平台安全与社会福祉构成日益严峻的挑战。现有研究多聚焦于事后检测,而预测性方法旨在提前预判未来危害行为——如仇恨言论传播、对话失控或用户重复违规——在完全发生前进行预警。尽管关注度上升,该领域仍缺乏统一分类与方法整合。本文系统回顾了49项相关研究,提出包含五类核心任务的分类体系:早期危害检测、危害出现预测、危害传播预测、行为风险预测与主动治理支持。我们分析各类任务在时间框架、预测粒度与目标上的差异,考察建模技术演进(从传统机器学习到预训练语言模型),并评估数据集特征对任务可行性与泛化能力的影响。研究指出方法论难题包括数据稀缺、时间漂移与基准不足,并展望多语言建模、跨平台泛化与人机协同系统等新兴方向。通过建立清晰框架,本综述旨在推动更稳健、更具社会责任感的反社会行为预测研究。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Antisocial behavior (ASB) on social media-including hate speech, harassment, and trolling-poses growing challenges for platform safety and societal wellbeing. While prior work has primarily focused on detecting harmful content after it appears, predictive approaches aim to forecast future harmful behaviors-such as hate speech propagation, conversation derailment, or user recidivism-before they fully unfold. Despite increasing interest, the field remains fragmented, lacking a unified taxonomy or clear synthesis of existing methods. This paper presents a systematic review of over 49 studies on ASB prediction, offering a structured taxonomy of five core task types: early harm detection, harm emergence prediction, harm propagation prediction, behavioral risk prediction, and proactive moderation support. We analyze how these tasks differ by temporal framing, prediction granularity, and operational goals. In addition, we examine trends in modeling techniques-from classical machine learning to pre-trained language models-and assess the influence of dataset characteristics on task feasibility and generalization. Our review highlights methodological challenges, such as dataset scarcity, temporal drift, and limited benchmarks, while outlining emerging research directions including multilingual modeling, cross-platform generalization, and human-in-the-loop systems. By organizing the field around a coherent framework, this survey aims to guide future work toward more robust and socially responsible ASB prediction.
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