arXiv:2507.21383cs.AI2025-07被引 1

用液态神经网络+XGBoost优化多级供应链订货,缓解牛鞭效应。

Optimizing Multi-Tier Supply Chain Ordering with LNN+XGBoost: Mitigating the Bullwhip Effect

  • 融合液态神经网络动态建模与XGBoost全局优化能力
  • 显著降低上游订单波动性,提升整体利润
  • 适合需要实时响应的复杂供应链场景

供应链管理面临需求波动、库存失衡及牛鞭效应导致的上游订单放大问题。传统方法如简单移动平均难以应对动态市场。尽管LSTM、强化学习和XGBoost等机器学习技术有潜力,但受限于计算复杂度、训练效率或时间序列建模能力。液态神经网络(LNN)受生物系统启发,具备高适应性、低计算开销和强抗噪能力,适用于实时决策与边缘计算。虽已在自动驾驶、医疗监测中成功应用,但在供应链优化中仍鲜少探索。本文提出一种混合LNN与XGBoost模型,用于优化多级供应链订货策略。利用LNN的动态特征提取与XGBoost的全局优化能力,旨在缓解牛鞭效应并提升累积收益。研究探讨了该框架中局部与全局协同机制如何平衡可适应性与效率,填补了现有方法在动态高效供应链管理中的空白。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Supply chain management faces significant challenges, including demand fluctuations, inventory imbalances, and amplified upstream order variability due to the bullwhip effect. Traditional methods, such as simple moving averages, struggle to address dynamic market conditions. Emerging machine learning techniques, including LSTM, reinforcement learning, and XGBoost, offer potential solutions but are limited by computational complexity, training inefficiencies, or constraints in time-series modeling. Liquid Neural Networks, inspired by dynamic biological systems, present a promising alternative due to their adaptability, low computational cost, and robustness to noise, making them suitable for real-time decision-making and edge computing. Despite their success in applications like autonomous vehicles and medical monitoring, their potential in supply chain optimization remains underexplored. This study introduces a hybrid LNN and XGBoost model to optimize ordering strategies in multi-tier supply chains. By leveraging LNN's dynamic feature extraction and XGBoost's global optimization capabilities, the model aims to mitigate the bullwhip effect and enhance cumulative profitability. The research investigates how local and global synergies within the hybrid framework address the dual demands of adaptability and efficiency in SCM. The proposed approach fills a critical gap in existing methodologies, offering an innovative solution for dynamic and efficient supply chain management.

供应链优化液态神经网络牛鞭效应机器学习

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