用经济规律约束神经网络,提升商品需求预测的准确性与可解释性。
PREIG: Physics-informed and Reinforcement-driven Interpretable GRU for Commodity Demand Forecasting
- 将价格与需求负相关性作为物理约束嵌入GRU模型
- 在多个数据集上RMSE和MAPE均优于传统模型与基线
- 适合需要可解释性且追求高精度的经济预测场景
准确预测商品需求仍是重大挑战,源于市场波动、非线性依赖及经济一致性要求。本文提出PREIG,一种面向商品需求预测的新型深度学习框架。该模型通过自定义损失函数,将价格与需求负相关这一领域经济约束融入门控循环单元(GRU)架构,确保预测结果符合经济理论并具备可解释性。为提升性能与稳定性,PREIG结合NAdam与L-BFGS的混合优化策略,辅以基于种群的训练(POP)。在多个商品数据集上的实验表明,PREIG在RMSE与MAPE指标上显著优于传统计量模型(ARIMA、GARCH)和深度学习基线(BPNN、RNN)。相较于标准GRU,PREIG在保持良好可解释性的前提下仍具备优异预测能力。通过融合领域知识、优化理论与深度学习,PREIG为经济领域的高维非线性时间序列预测提供了一种鲁棒、可解释且可扩展的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately forecasting commodity demand remains a critical challenge due to volatile market dynamics, nonlinear dependencies, and the need for economically consistent predictions. This paper introduces PREIG, a novel deep learning framework tailored for commodity demand forecasting. The model uniquely integrates a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architecture with physics-informed neural network (PINN) principles by embedding a domain-specific economic constraint: the negative elasticity between price and demand. This constraint is enforced through a customized loss function that penalizes violations of the physical rule, ensuring that model predictions remain interpretable and aligned with economic theory. To further enhance predictive performance and stability, PREIG incorporates a hybrid optimization strategy that couples NAdam and L-BFGS with Population-Based Training (POP). Experiments across multiple commodities datasets demonstrate that PREIG significantly outperforms traditional econometric models (ARIMA,GARCH) and deep learning baselines (BPNN,RNN) in both RMSE and MAPE. When compared with GRU,PREIG maintains good explainability while still performing well in prediction. By bridging domain knowledge, optimization theory and deep learning, PREIG provides a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for high-dimensional nonlinear time series forecasting in economy.
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