用语言模型精准指导时间序列预测,提升准确性和可解释性。
DualSG: A Dual-Stream Explicit Semantic-Guided Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Framework
- 设计双流框架,让语言模型作为语义引导者优化传统预测结果。
- 提出时间序列描述标签,用自然语言显式表达趋势模式,减少隐式对齐误差。
- 在多个真实数据集上超越15个顶尖方法,适合需要高可解释性的场景。
多变量时间序列预测在诸多应用中至关重要。近期研究尝试利用大语言模型(LLM)的推理能力来提升预测性能,但多数方法将LLM当作端到端预测器,导致数值精度下降且迫使模型处理其非设计范畴的模式。另一类方法试图在隐空间对齐文本与时间序列模态,却常面临对齐困难。本文提出一种新范式:不将LLM视为独立预测器,而是作为双流框架中的语义引导模块。我们提出DualSG框架,通过显式语义引导,使LLM负责精炼而非替代传统预测。其中引入「时间序列描述」(Time Series Caption),以自然语言显式总结趋势模式,为LLM提供可解释上下文,避免依赖隐空间对齐。同时设计了基于描述的融合模块,显式建模变量间关系,降低噪声与计算开销。在来自多个领域的真实数据集上的实验表明,DualSG持续优于15个先进基线,验证了显式结合数值预测与语义引导的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate Time Series Forecasting plays a key role in many applications. Recent works have explored using Large Language Models for MTSF to take advantage of their reasoning abilities. However, many methods treat LLMs as end-to-end forecasters, which often leads to a loss of numerical precision and forces LLMs to handle patterns beyond their intended design. Alternatively, methods that attempt to align textual and time series modalities within latent space frequently encounter alignment difficulty. In this paper, we propose to treat LLMs not as standalone forecasters, but as semantic guidance modules within a dual-stream framework. We propose DualSG, a dual-stream framework that provides explicit semantic guidance, where LLMs act as Semantic Guides to refine rather than replace traditional predictions. As part of DualSG, we introduce Time Series Caption, an explicit prompt format that summarizes trend patterns in natural language and provides interpretable context for LLMs, rather than relying on implicit alignment between text and time series in the latent space. We also design a caption-guided fusion module that explicitly models inter-variable relationships while reducing noise and computation. Experiments on real-world datasets from diverse domains show that DualSG consistently outperforms 15 state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating the value of explicitly combining numerical forecasting with semantic guidance.
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