反对人工智能军备竞赛，倡导合作与制衡以降低灾难风险
Against racing to AGI: Cooperation, deterrence, and catastrophic risks
- 提出合作与威慑替代竞速发展AGI的策略
- 指出竞速将显著增加核不稳等重大风险
- 适合关注AI安全与国际治理的研究者
AGI竞速论认为，主要人工智能开发方（尤其是大国）出于自身利益，应加速前沿AI发展，率先实现通用人工智能（AGI），以领先竞争对手。本文对此观点提出反驳：首先，竞速带来的灾难性风险远高于预期，包括加剧核不稳定性，并削弱技术层面AI安全研究的有效性；其次，竞速所预期的收益可能低于假设，赢者未必能实现对输者的全面主导；第三，国际合作与审慎的威慑机制可作为竞速的可行替代方案，风险更小且能获得竞速声称的大部分收益。因此，竞速并非任何一方的理性选择，反而激励和推动全球协作解决AI问题更为有利。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
AGI Racing is the view that it is in the self-interest of major actors in AI development, especially powerful nations, to accelerate their frontier AI development to build highly capable AI, especially artificial general intelligence (AGI), before competitors have a chance. We argue against AGI Racing. First, the downsides of racing to AGI are much higher than portrayed by this view. Racing to AGI would substantially increase catastrophic risks from AI, including nuclear instability, and undermine the prospects of technical AI safety research to be effective. Second, the expected benefits of racing may be lower than proponents of AGI Racing hold. In particular, it is questionable whether winning the race enables complete domination over losers. Third, international cooperation and coordination, and perhaps carefully crafted deterrence measures, constitute viable alternatives to racing to AGI which have much smaller risks and promise to deliver most of the benefits that racing to AGI is supposed to provide. Hence, racing to AGI is not in anyone's self-interest as other actions, particularly incentivizing and seeking international cooperation around AI issues, are preferable.
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