arXiv:2507.22389cs.ROcs.SY2025-07被引 5

用轨迹预测器估算周围车辆可到达区域,实现高效安全的自动驾驶路径验证。

Safety Evaluation of Motion Plans Using Trajectory Predictors as Forward Reachable Set Estimators

  • 基于多模态轨迹预测构建动态可达集,结合场景上下文生成安全边界。
  • 在nuScenes数据集上,相比基线提升23%声学性(不误报),保持完整性。
  • 适用于端到端自动驾驶系统,尤其适合不可解释模型的安全监控。

端到端自动驾驶系统缺乏可解释的中间模块,因此必须确保最终输出——运动规划——的安全性以验证整个系统的安全性。这要求安全监测器既完整(能检测所有不安全规划)又可靠(不误报安全规划)。本文提出一种原理性安全监测方法,利用现代多模态轨迹预测器来近似周围车辆的前向可达集(FRS)。通过构建凸优化问题,直接从预测的状态分布中提取这些数据驱动的FRS,条件为车道拓扑和历史行为等场景上下文。为保证完整性,采用置信预测校准FRS,确保高概率覆盖真实轨迹。为在分布外(OOD)或预测失败时保持可靠性,引入贝叶斯滤波,根据预测器实际表现动态调整FRS的保守程度。随后通过检查自车规划与校准后的FRS是否存在交集,判断规划是否在他人可能行为下保持无碰撞。在nuScenes数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法显著提升了声学性(减少误报),同时保持完整性,为学习型自动驾驶系统提供了实用且可靠的安全部署方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The advent of end-to-end autonomy stacks - often lacking interpretable intermediate modules - has placed an increased burden on ensuring that the final output, i.e., the motion plan, is safe in order to validate the safety of the entire stack. This requires a safety monitor that is both complete (able to detect all unsafe plans) and sound (does not flag safe plans). In this work, we propose a principled safety monitor that leverages modern multi-modal trajectory predictors to approximate forward reachable sets (FRS) of surrounding agents. By formulating a convex program, we efficiently extract these data-driven FRSs directly from the predicted state distributions, conditioned on scene context such as lane topology and agent history. To ensure completeness, we leverage conformal prediction to calibrate the FRS and guarantee coverage of ground-truth trajectories with high probability. To preserve soundness in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios or under predictor failure, we introduce a Bayesian filter that dynamically adjusts the FRS conservativeness based on the predictor's observed performance. We then assess the safety of the ego vehicle's motion plan by checking for intersections with these calibrated FRSs, ensuring the plan remains collision-free under plausible future behaviors of others. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset show our approach significantly improves soundness while maintaining completeness, offering a practical and reliable safety monitor for learned autonomy stacks.

自动驾驶安全评估轨迹预测可达集

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