arXiv:2507.22429cs.ROcs.LG2025-07中稿 · publication in pro…

用归一化流模型更准估算自动驾驶风险,减少维度诅咒影响。

Comparing Normalizing Flows with Kernel Density Estimation in Estimating Risk of Automated Driving Systems

  • 采用归一化流构建无假设的高维参数密度模型
  • 相比核密度估计,显著降低维度增加带来的误差
  • 适合需要精确风险评估的自动驾驶安全验证场景

自动驾驶系统(ADS)的安全验证至关重要。场景评估是常用方法,需从真实驾驶数据中提取测试案例,并准确估计场景在参数空间中的暴露概率(即概率密度函数,PDF)。传统方法常假设参数独立,引入误差;而避免假设又受限于低维简化模型,难以应对维度诅咒。本文采用归一化流(NF)进行高维参数分布建模,通过可逆可微变换将简单分布转化为复杂分布,无需对分布形状做限制。实验表明,尽管计算成本高于核密度估计(KDE),NF对维度增加不敏感,在风险与风险不确定性估计上表现更优,能提供更精确的安全评估。该研究展示了NF在基于场景的安全验证中的潜力。未来工作将探索其在场景生成中的应用,优化网络结构、变换类型与训练超参数以提升实用性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The development of safety validation methods is essential for the safe deployment and operation of Automated Driving Systems (ADSs). One of the goals of safety validation is to prospectively evaluate the risk of an ADS dealing with real-world traffic. Scenario-based assessment is a widely-used approach, where test cases are derived from real-world driving data. To allow for a quantitative analysis of the system performance, the exposure of the scenarios must be accurately estimated. The exposure of scenarios at parameter level is expressed using a Probability Density Function (PDF). However, assumptions about the PDF, such as parameter independence, can introduce errors, while avoiding assumptions often leads to oversimplified models with limited parameters to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. This paper considers the use of Normalizing Flows (NF) for estimating the PDF of the parameters. NF are a class of generative models that transform a simple base distribution into a complex one using a sequence of invertible and differentiable mappings, enabling flexible, high-dimensional density estimation without restrictive assumptions on the PDF's shape. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NF in quantifying risk and risk uncertainty of an ADS, comparing its performance with Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), a traditional method for non-parametric PDF estimation. While NF require more computational resources compared to KDE, NF is less sensitive to the curse of dimensionality. As a result, NF can improve risk uncertainty estimation, offering a more precise assessment of an ADS's safety. This work illustrates the potential of NF in scenario-based safety. Future work involves experimenting more with using NF for scenario generation and optimizing the NF architecture, transformation types, and training hyperparameters to further enhance their applicability.

自动驾驶归一化流风险评估

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