构建非凸模糊性下的新概率框架,突破传统期望理论局限。
A Mean-Field Theory of $Θ$-Expectations
- 引入耦合的均场正倒向随机微分方程,驱动项基于概率依赖的非凸集点态最大化。
- 证明优化解唯一稳定,系统局部与全局适定,估值泛函满足动态一致性。
- 适用于建模内生模糊性的金融定价与风险评估,适合量化研究者参考。
标准次线性期望理论对原始不确定性模型的非凸几何不敏感。本文为一类结构化非凸模型构建新的随机微积分框架。提出一类完全耦合的均场前向-倒向随机微分方程(FBSDE),其中倒向方程(BSDE)的驱动项定义为关于律依赖的非凸集的点态最大化。通过在控制变量上施加统一强凹性假设,确保优化问题存在唯一且稳定的解。核心贡献在于从原始几何与正则性条件出发,建立该优化器的Lipschitz稳定性,奠定整个适定性理论基础。证明了FBSDE系统的局部与全局适定性。由此导出的估值泛函——Θ-期望,被证明具有动态一致性,且关键地违反次可加性公理。连同其非平移不变性,表明其从根本上区别于凸范式。本工作为一类非凸、内生模糊性下的随机微积分提供了严格基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The canonical theory of sublinear expectations, a foundation of stochastic calculus under ambiguity, is insensitive to the non-convex geometry of primitive uncertainty models. This paper develops a new stochastic calculus for a structured class of such non-convex models. We introduce a class of fully coupled Mean-Field Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations where the BSDE driver is defined by a pointwise maximization over a law-dependent, non-convex set. Mathematical tractability is achieved via a uniform strong concavity assumption on the driver with respect to the control variable, which ensures the optimization admits a unique and stable solution. A central contribution is to establish the Lipschitz stability of this optimizer from primitive geometric and regularity conditions, which underpins the entire well-posedness theory. We prove local and global well-posedness theorems for the FBSDE system. The resulting valuation functional, the $Θ$-Expectation, is shown to be dynamically consistent and, most critically, to violate the axiom of sub-additivity. This, along with its failure to be translation invariant, demonstrates its fundamental departure from the convex paradigm. This work provides a rigorous foundation for stochastic calculus under a class of non-convex, endogenous ambiguity.
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